GlobalFoundries Inc (76J) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

For the third quarter GF guided revenue of $1.885 billion ± $25 million, gross margin of ~30.5% ±100 bps (midpoint implying ~450 bps YoY expansion), non‑IFRS operating expense (ex‑share‑based comp) of $260 million ± $10 million, operating margin ~16.7% ±170 bps, share‑based comp of ≈$76 million (≈$18 million in COGS), net interest & other income $3–11 million, income tax expense $28–52 million, and diluted EPS of $0.51 ± $0.05 on ~556 million diluted shares. For full‑year 2026 GF reiterated an adjusted free cash flow margin target of ~10%, expects communications infrastructure & data center revenue to grow 50–60% Y/Y (up from prior high‑30s outlook), technology services to be at the high end of a 10–12% share of total revenue with ~$100–$120 million contribution from the MIPS + Synopsys ARC deals, a mid‑teens effective tax rate, and noted CapEx is expected toward the higher end of their prior 15–20% of revenue range as R&D ramps. Key balance‑sheet and cash metrics included Q2 operating cash flow of $405 million, Q2 net CapEx of $408 million (~23% of Q2 revenue), cash and marketable securities ≈$3.3 billion, total debt $1.1 billion with a $1.0 billion undrawn revolver, a $0.12 quarterly dividend (paid and approved for Oct. 9), and ≈$100 million remaining on the share‑repurchase authorization.