Onterris (5MO) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

Management updated 2026 guidance to $740–$790 million of revenue and $117–$120 million of consolidated adjusted EBITDA (≈$9M midpoint reduction), implying ~15.5% EBITDA margin at the midpoint (≈150 bps YoY expansion; +50 bps vs. prior guide); the revision reflects ~$35–$55M lower pass‑through revenue (~$45M midpoint), ~$35–$45M lower emergency‑response revenue (~$40M midpoint) and $15–$25M of other impacts (~$20M), with pass‑through reducing EBITDA by ≈$4.5M, emergency response ≈$10M, and other items netting a $5.5M benefit. For Q3 they expect $190–$210M of revenue and a 17–18% EBITDA margin at the midpoint. Despite the lower top line, Q2 results were $186.7M revenue and $31.9M adjusted EBITDA (17.1%); Consulting & Treatment Q2 revenue was $125.6M (prior $171.7M) with a 22.2% EBITDA margin, Measurement & Analysis was $61.1M with a 26.2% margin. Management still expects strong cash generation (operating cash flow ≈60% of full‑year EBITDA), $70–$80M of operating cash flow in 2H26, year‑end leverage of ~2.5% (vs. 3.2x at June 30 under the credit facility), available liquidity $160.8M, and noted YTD activity including repurchasing 1.6M shares for $30M and paying ~$10–11M of contingent acquisition consideration.