Horizon Bancorp (4WC) AI Stock Analysis

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Horizon Bancorp

(Frankfurt:4WC)

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Action:N/A

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Positive Factors

Strong profitability recoveryThe sharp return to profitability, supported by strong returns on assets and tangible equity, demonstrates meaningful earnings power in the current operating model. If maintained, these returns can strengthen internal capital generation and support continued investment in Horizon’s community banking franchise.

Negative Factors

Earnings volatilityThe large swing from profitability to a substantial 2025 loss shows that Horizon’s earnings profile has not yet demonstrated consistent durability through changing conditions. Such volatility can weaken confidence in future returns, complicate capital planning, and make reported improvement harder to extrapolate.

Horizon Bancorp (4WC) vs. iShares MSCI Germany ETF (EWG)

Market Cap: EUR 1.07B
Dividend Yield: 3.05%
Average Volume (3M): ―
Price to Earnings (P/E): 10.0
Beta (1Y): 0.86
Revenue Growth: 313.89%
EPS Growth: ―
Country: Germany
Employees: 478
Sector: Financial
Sector Strength: 68
Industry: Banks - Regional

Horizon Bancorp Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Horizon Bancorp, Inc. acts as the parent organization for Horizon Bank, overseeing the delivery of a full spectrum of commercial and retail banking services. The company provides a variety of deposit options and extends diverse loan products, includi...

Horizon Bancorp Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 20, 2026(Q3-2026)|% Change Since:9.09%|Next Earnings Date:Jan 26, 2027

Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call was strongly positive. Management reported top-tier profitability, stable net interest margin performance, balanced mid-single-digit loan and deposit growth, improved problem-loan metrics, strong capital generation and largely unchanged full-year guidance. The main challenges were elevated commercial real estate payoffs, competitive pricing, expected increases in deposit costs, seasonal mortgage normalization and somewhat elevated third-quarter expenses, but management described these issues as manageable and maintained a positive outlook for the fourth quarter and 2027.

Positive Updates

Strong Profitability and Returns

Third-quarter annualized returns on average assets were above 1.7%, returns on tangible common equity exceeded 20%, and the net interest margin remained in the mid-4.3% range.

Negative Updates

Commercial Real Estate Decline

Commercial real estate loans declined $9.9 million during the quarter, reflecting a selective strategy in real estate segments and elevated payoffs in July and August as customers sold properties. Management said payoff activity was elevated in the second quarter and early third quarter, although it moderated in September.

Company Guidance

For 2026, full year period-end loan and deposit balances are still expected to grow mid-single digits, which from here would suggest more loan growth than deposit growth in Q4; fourth-quarter non-FTE net interest income is expected to be in the range of $66 million to $67 million, with continued modest expansion of the FTE net interest margin and one 25 basis point rate hike in early December. Fee income is still expected to be in the mid-$40 million range for the year, while, excluding the $3.1 million legal charge in the second quarter, expenses are still expected to be in the low to mid-$160 million range for the full year, with fourth-quarter expenses probably closer to $41 million; the effective tax rate for Q4 is anticipated to be in the range of 18% to 19%. Loan growth is expected to remain mid-single-digit, expected cash flows should approximate $150 million per quarter in the 6.25% range, and non-time interest-bearing deposit betas are expected to be in the range of 30% to 40% over time.

Horizon Bancorp Risk Analysis

Horizon Bancorp disclosed 41 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Horizon Bancorp reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added

0 New Risks

Horizon Bancorp Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (68)

Financial Indicators

DE:4WC against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
IBCP	81Outperform	$822.53M	10.56	13.61%	3.08%	2.79%	4.64%
THFF	79Outperform	$942.08M	9.95	13.84%	2.92%	9.80%	23.15%
HBCP	73Outperform	$487.46M	10.58	9.96%	2.08%	0.96%	1.16%
MBWM	70Outperform	$1.06B	10.74	12.91%	2.59%	5.40%	6.38%
Sector *	68Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
EQBK	64Neutral	$1.03B	10.54	11.56%	1.56%	52.78%	266.60%

* Financial Sector Average

Performance Comparison

DE:4WC and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
DE:4WC	Horizon Bancorp	18.00	4.71	35.42%
THFF	First Financial Corporation Indiana	76.24	21.15	38.40%
HBCP	Home Bancorp	60.94	7.59	14.22%
MBWM	Mercantile Bank	60.57	16.46	37.32%
EQBK	Equity Bancshares Inc.	48.71	7.70	18.78%
IBCP	Independent Bank Corporation	36.31	6.15	20.38%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Horizon Bancorp AI Stock Analysis