Carrier Global (4PN) Q3 2026 Earnings Report
DE:4PN Q3 2026 EPS Results
- Actual EPS
- EUR 0.78
- Consensus EPS
- EUR 0.68
- Beat/Miss
- Beat by +EUR 0.10
- One Year Ago EPS
- EUR 0.60
DE:4PN Q3 2026 Revenue Results
- Actual Revenue
- EUR 5.60B
- Expected Revenue
- EUR 5.45B
- Beat/Miss
- Beat by +EUR 150.76M
- YoY Revenue Growth
- +12.26%
Earnings Announcement Details
- Quarter
- Q3 2026
- Date
- 10/29/2026
- Time
- Before Open
- Conference Call
- Thursday, October 29, 2026
DE:4PN Upcoming Earnings
Carrier Global's next earnings date is estimated for February 9, 2027, based on past reporting schedules.
Q3 2026 Earnings Call Audio
DE:4PN Q3 2026 Earnings Call
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Q3 2026 Earnings Slide Deck
Q3 2026 Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Sentiment|Positive
The call was strongly positive overall. Carrier reported strong third-quarter financial results, broad-based order growth, record backlog, exceptional data center momentum, improving residential and European markets, and an upgraded full-year sales outlook. The primary challenges were substantial tariff and input cost inflation, lower-than-expected pricing realization, CSA margin pressure, the Climate Solutions Europe impairment, and weakness in transportation and some regional or end markets. Management remained confident in its ability to address these issues through pricing, productivity, restructuring, supply chain actions, and capacity expansion.
Company Guidance
Carrier now expects 2026 full-year sales to be nearly $24 billion, organic growth of about 10%, CSA full-year operating margin of about 19%, and adjusted EPS of $2.85-$2.90; it also expects double-digit EPS growth this year despite unexpected in-year input cost headwinds of $550 million-$600 million, with gross productivity about $600 million, and remains on track to deliver its full year commitment of $2 billion in data center sales. CSA residential market volumes are now expected to be between 7.5 million and 8 million units, CSA has announced price actions across the portfolio of up to 10%, including 8% for resi, and 2027 guidance is not yet provided, although management expects another year of double-digit EPS growth, will target double-digit EPS growth, and does not expect a snapback in the first or the second quarter.
- Strong Third-Quarter Financial PerformanceOrganic sales grew 15%, adjusted operating profit increased about 35%, adjusted operating margins expanded 260 basis points, and adjusted EPS increased 30%. Excluding the impact of IEEPA refunds, adjusted EPS increased approximately 15%.
- Robust Free Cash FlowYear-to-date free cash flow was $1.5 billion, while third-quarter free cash flow was close to $700 million.
- Broad-Based Order GrowthGlobal orders increased 35% in the quarter, with global commercial orders up over 60%. Excluding data centers, commercial orders increased 20% globally.
- Exceptional Data Center MomentumData center orders increased 300% in the quarter, and year-to-date data center orders exceeded $3 billion, an increase of nearly 350%. Data center sales exceeded $550 million in the third quarter, above the company's target, and Carrier remains on track to deliver its full-year commitment of $2 billion.
- Record Backlog and Hyperscaler AgreementRecord backlog exceeded $8.5 billion, excluding minimum volume commitments under long-term agreements. Carrier also signed an agreement with a hyperscaler for more than $3 billion, with a significant portion covered by a minimum volume commitment.
- Data Center Business Supports Margins and Customer RelationshipsData center sales are margin accretive to Carrier's applied business. The company said two hyperscalers doubled down on their commitments based partly on Carrier's product performance, commissioning, and field support, and that data center long-term agreements provide protection on both minimum volumes and margins.
- Growth Beyond Data CentersNon-data center commercial orders increased 20% in the quarter. Strength was reported across industrial, hospitality, healthcare, pharmaceuticals, semiconductor fabrication, renewables, and battery factories, while strategic national accounts and portfolio replacement programs contributed to share gains.
- Strong Segment Sales GrowthCSA residential sales increased more than 30%, CSA commercial sales increased over 25%, and CSA data center sales increased about 2.5x sequentially. Residential and light commercial sales in Europe grew 13%, CSE heat pump and air-conditioning sales each increased approximately 35%, and Asia commercial HVAC sales grew double-digits.
- Improving Residential and Light Commercial MarketsThe CSA residential market, previously expected to be below 7 million units, is now tracking between 7.5 million and 8 million units. European heating markets are stabilizing, Germany has returned to growth, and demand for heat pumps and air conditioning is described as extremely strong.
- Product and Technology DifferentiationCarrier reported strong demand for its new 2 MW and 3 MW air-cooled chillers, new families of CDUs, digital building management systems, AI and systems offerings, and the QuantumLeap integrated cooling and digital platform. Orders are already being booked for a 5 MW CDU scheduled to launch toward the end of the year.
- New Product Launches Gaining TractionInitial orders for a U.S. mid-tier heat pump using Toshiba variable-frequency-drive and rotary-compressor technology have been strong. The Viessmann Vitocal 200-A launched in more than 10 countries with record pre-sales, and Systems Profi installers in Europe delivered 70% growth in the third quarter.
- Progress in Integrated Energy SolutionsCarrier Energy is progressing its integrated battery heat pump offering through partnerships, including selection as the first new technology partner for PG&E's SHARE program funded by Google. The company is installing its first revenue-producing units this quarter.
- Capacity Expansion in Fort WorthCarrier announced a new advanced manufacturing and engineering site in Fort Worth, Texas, which will add approximately 1,500 highly skilled jobs, insource critical subassemblies and components, expand test lab capacity, and begin customer deliveries in the late summer of next year. The facility is expected to more than double Americas capacity and support both data center and non-data center demand.
- Commercial and Aftermarket Portfolio ExpansionCarrier's commercial HVAC and aftermarket businesses have grown at double-digit rates every year since the spin. By the end of this year, those businesses are expected to be approximately twice their size versus spin, and by the end of next year they are expected to represent nearly half of the portfolio. Commercial sales are up 2x since spin and commercial backlog is up 4x.
- Updated Full-Year Sales OutlookCarrier now expects full-year 2026 sales to be nearly $24 billion, with organic growth of about 10%, up from its prior outlook of a little over $23 billion. The improvement reflects stronger residential and light commercial performance in the Americas and Europe and higher commercial sales in the Americas.
- Double-Digit EPS Growth ExpectationsDespite unexpected in-year input cost headwinds of $550 million-$600 million, driven by tariffs, commodities, and supply chain inefficiencies, Carrier expects double-digit EPS growth this year. Adjusted EPS guidance is $2.85-$2.90 for the full year, and the company expects to enter 2027 positioned for another year of double-digit EPS growth.
- Productivity and Pricing ActionsGross productivity is expected to be about $600 million this year. Carrier has announced price actions across the CSA portfolio of up to 10%, including an 8% residential price increase effective toward the end of the quarter, and is using new pricing tools and AI-supported dynamic pricing.
- Positive Commercial HVAC PricingManagement said pricing was positive in every segment in the third quarter and expects the same in the fourth quarter, including commercial HVAC. Pricing has generally been fair and good globally, although management noted some pressure in certain parts of China and Asia.
- Healthy CSA Light Commercial Inventory and DemandCSA light commercial field inventory ended the third quarter down 20% year over year, and management expects fourth-quarter sales to increase about 20%, potentially somewhat more, due to strong customer demand.
- Transport Order ImprovementNorth America truck and trailer orders increased mid-teens in the quarter, which management described as encouraging, though too early to call a recovery.
DE:4PN Earnings History
| Report Date | Fiscal Quarter | Forecast / EPS | Last Year's EPS | EPS YoY Change | Press Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 09, 2027 | 2026 (Q4) | 0.51- | 0.3 | ― | ― |
| Oct 29, 2026 | 2026 (Q3) | 0.680.78 | 0.6 | 29.85% (+0.18) | |
| Jul 28, 2026 | 2026 (Q2) | 0.730.77 | 0.82 | -6.52% (-0.05) | |
| Apr 30, 2026 | 2026 (Q1) | 0.450.51 | 0.58 | -12.31% (-0.07) | |
| Feb 05, 2026 | 2025 (Q4) | 0.320.30 | 0.48 | -37.04% (-0.18) | |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2025 (Q3) | 0.500.60 | 0.69 | -12.99% (-0.09) | |
| Jul 29, 2025 | 2025 (Q2) | 0.810.82 | 0.78 | 5.75% (+0.04) | |
| May 01, 2025 | 2025 (Q1) | 0.520.58 | 0.55 | 4.84% (+0.03) | |
| Feb 11, 2025 | 2024 (Q4) | 0.450.48 | 0.47 | 1.89% (+0.01) | |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 2024 (Q3) | 0.720.69 | 0.8 | -13.48% (-0.11) |
The table shows recent earnings report dates and whether the forecast was beat or missed. See the change in forecast and EPS from the previous year.
Beat Missed
