Macquarie Group Limited (4M4) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

Guidance was cautious but broadly constructive — management expects short‑term income for Macquarie to be largely in line with FY26 while remaining sensitive to market conditions: MAM base fees broadly in line (MAM contribution $2.6bn; AUM $722bn; private markets AUM ~$218bn, +$27bn year‑on‑year, with ~$21bn dry powder); BFS to grow through loans, deposits and platform flows (BFS profit $1.61bn; home loans ~ $181bn, +28%; deposits ~ $215–222bn, +25%; funds on platform +1%; 2.3m clients); CGM net operating income expected broadly in line excluding the FY26 OnStream realization (CGM contribution $4.221bn; commodities income ~$3.6bn; asset finance book $7.6bn, +25%); Macquarie Capital broadly in line subject to transaction/investment activity (MacCap profit $1.491bn; private credit ~ $27bn, earning ~4–4.5%). At group level they expect compensation and effective tax rates broadly in line (FY26 ETR 27.6%), continue to hold a prudent stance on funding/capital/liquidity (capital surplus $9.3bn, CET1 12.8%, term funding issued ~$30bn with WAL ~4.1 years, LCR/NSFR comfortably above minima), and to maintain disciplined costs and investment (group net operating income $19.5bn; operating expenses $12.7bn; tech spend +5% to ~20% of expenses); capital management includes a FY26 dividend of $7.00 (H2 $4.20, H2 payout ratio ~50%, FY payout ratio ~55%), DRP discount 1.5% and conclusion of the on‑market buyback.