Forestar Group (4F31) AI Stock Analysis

Forestar Group

(Frankfurt:4F31)

Rating:―N/A

Action:N/A

Date:―

No summary available

Positive Factors

Balance Sheet StrengthLower leverage, rising equity, and substantial liquidity give Forestar flexibility to fund land development while absorbing housing-market volatility. This stronger capital structure can support disciplined growth, reduce refinancing pressure, and help the company pursue opportunities when competitors are more constrained.

Negative Factors

Slower Fiscal 2027 OutlookManagement’s outlook implies lower lot deliveries and revenue after fiscal 2026, indicating that demand and builder purchasing conditions may restrain near-term growth. A slower conversion pace could reduce operating leverage and delay the realization of value from Forestar’s land and controlled-lot inventory.

Forestar Group (4F31) vs. iShares MSCI Germany ETF (EWG)

Market Cap: EUR 1.22B
Dividend Yield: ―
Average Volume (3M): 127
Price to Earnings (P/E): 8.6
Beta (1Y): 0.42
Revenue Growth: -5.19%
EPS Growth: -17.68%
Country: Germany
Employees: 402
Sector: Real Estate
Sector Strength: 65
Industry: Real Estate - Development

Forestar Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Forestar Group Inc. is an American company primarily engaged in developing residential lots. Its business model entails acquiring land, then preparing the necessary infrastructure for new single-family housing communities. These fully developed lots...

Forestar Group Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 28, 2026(Q4-2026)|% Change Since:-5.98%|Next Earnings Date:Jan 25, 2027

Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call was predominantly positive. Forestar reported solid fiscal 2026 revenue, earnings, book value growth, liquidity and customer expansion, while maintaining disciplined investment and low leverage. The principal challenges were affordability and mortgage-rate pressure, lower reported fourth-quarter margins due to project-specific charges and impairments, sequentially lower finished lots, and a fiscal 2027 outlook below fiscal 2026 actual lot deliveries and revenue.

Positive Updates

Solid Fiscal 2026 Revenue and Earnings

Forestar generated $580.8 million of fourth-quarter revenue and $1.6 billion for fiscal 2026, within its most recent guidance range. Fourth-quarter net income attributable to Forestar was $59.2 million, or $1.15 per diluted share, while full-year net income was $142.6 million, or $2.78 per diluted share.

Negative Updates

Affordability and Mortgage Rate Headwinds

Ongoing affordability constraints and cautious consumer sentiment continued to weigh on new home sales and demand. Recent increases in mortgage rates added further pressure to affordability, although builder buydown incentives were helping bridge part of the affordability gap.

Company Guidance

For fiscal 2027, Forestar currently expects to invest approximately $1.3 billion in land acquisition and development, with the majority in development, and expects headcount to remain relatively flat; it expects to deliver between 12,000 and 13,000 lots and generate $1.4 billion to $1.5 billion of revenue, with the first quarter expected to be the lowest lot delivery and revenue quarter of the year and lot deliveries and revenues in the second half of fiscal 2027 expected to be higher than the first half.

Forestar Group Risk Analysis

Forestar Group disclosed 29 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Forestar Group reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added

0 New Risks

Forestar Group Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (65)

Financial Indicators

DE:4F31 against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
JOE	70Outperform	$3.96B	33.03	15.84%	0.91%	11.10%	17.69%
Sector *	65Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
HHH	64Neutral	$4.55B	15.40	7.18%	―	31.83%	7.70%
AXR	62Neutral	$111.13M	18.94	4.21%	―	-15.29%	-56.15%
FPH	58Neutral	$459.02M	10.22	3.47%	―	-39.15%	-69.83%
MLP	39Underperform	$285.97M	-62.74	-14.25%	―	-4.11%	66.64%

* Real Estate Sector Average

Performance Comparison

DE:4F31 and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
DE:4F31	Forestar	22.00	-0.20	-0.90%
AXR	AMREP Corporation	20.87	-0.74	-3.42%
HHH	Howard Hughes Holdings Inc.	76.23	-2.17	-2.77%
MLP	Maui Land & Pineapple	14.40	-1.10	-7.10%
JOE	St. Joe Co	70.02	11.86	20.40%
FPH	Five Point Holdings	4.18	-1.70	-28.91%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Forestar Group AI Stock Analysis