BWX Technologies (4BW) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

BWXT raised its 2026 outlook: it now expects about $3.8 billion of revenue (high‑teens growth vs. 2025), adjusted EBITDA of $662–672 million (midpoint +$10M), non‑GAAP EPS of $4.70–4.80, and increased full‑year free cash flow guidance by $30 million to $345–360 million. Management cited Q2 results that support the update (Q2 revenue $902M, +18% YoY and +9% organic; Q2 adjusted EBITDA ≈ $155M, +7%; Q2 adjusted EPS $1.07, +5%; Q2 free cash flow $115M), backlog of $8.4B (+40% YoY) and a trailing‑12‑month book‑to‑bill of 1.7x. Segment guidance was revised: Government Operations revenue now expected to grow in the high single digits (vs. prior low‑teens) with an adjusted EBITDA margin target of ~20.5% (up from >19%), while Commercial Operations revenue growth was raised to ~45% (from ~30%) with an adjusted EBITDA margin of ~13% (vs. ~14% previously) after incremental capacity investments. Other noted metrics: Q2 Commercial revenue +72% (33% organic) and Commercial adj. EBITDA +123% to $36M (11.9% margin); Q2 GovOps margin 20.9%; full‑year CapEx targeted at ~6% of sales (Q2 CapEx $41M; could approach 7% in future years); Q2 adjusted effective tax rate 21.8%; ~55% of second‑half earnings expected in Q4; and the medical sale removes roughly $130M of 2026 revenue (to be accounted for as equity income post‑close).