NextDecade (2XD) Q3 2026 Earnings Report

The call was strongly constructive, supported by construction remaining on budget and ahead of schedule, higher-than-base-case implied LNG margins, projected distributable cash flow of over $2.4 billion, successful debt refinancing, strong LNG demand, and progress toward Train 6 and later expansions. The main challenges were that first LNG is still pending, substantial ramp-up volumes remain uncontracted, Train 6 financing and permitting are not finalized, and project cash flows are subject to financing restrictions and startup-market uncertainty. Highlights significantly outweighed the lowlights.

NextDecade narrowed first LNG production from Train 1 to the second quarter of 2027, expects first gas into the facility in the fourth quarter of this year, and expects Train 1 substantial completion in the third quarter of 2027, one quarter ahead of its guaranteed schedule; Trains 1 and 2 were nearly 80% complete, Train 3 was more than 55% complete, Train 4 was 22.5% complete, and Train 5 was 14% complete as of September 2026. Based on current forward LNG and U.S. gas prices, volume-weighted average implied margins are estimated to average over $6 per MMBtu, more than $1 per MMBtu above base case guidance, with NextDecade’s share of project-level distributable cash flow totaling over $2.4 billion, or over 20% above the projected $2 billion; each $1 per MMBtu change would change projected cash flow by approximately $350 million-$400 million. The base case assumes $5 per MMBtu margins, a NextDecade-level debt target of $2 billion-$2.25 billion, and approximately $2 billion of cumulative cash flow, while the downside steady-state guidance case assumes $3 per MMBtu margins and approximately 2 million tons per annum of additional contracted capacity. Train 6 FID is targeted for the second half of next year, with more than Train 5’s 75%, likely less than phase IV’s 90% contracted.