Grupo Supervielle SA (189A) AI Stock Analysis

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Grupo Supervielle SA

(Frankfurt:189A)

Rating:―N/A

Action:N/A

Date:―

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Positive Factors

Cost restructuring and profitabilityThe return to quarterly profitability alongside a materially leaner cost base strengthens operating leverage. If personnel savings are sustained, they can support margins through future revenue cycles and improve earnings resilience, even after excluding extraordinary severance costs.

Negative Factors

Balance-sheet contractionA shrinking asset base and lower loans to the non-financial private sector indicate reduced balance-sheet scale during the first half of 2026. Unless the rebalancing leads to stronger returns, weaker lending volume could constrain net interest income and limit operating leverage.

Grupo Supervielle SA (189A) vs. iShares MSCI Germany ETF (EWG)

Market Cap: EUR 535.87M
Dividend Yield: ―
Average Volume (3M): 180
Price to Earnings (P/E): -17.1
Beta (1Y): 0.54
Revenue Growth: -11.27%
EPS Growth: -178.45%
Country: Germany
Employees: 3,456
Sector: Financial
Sector Strength: 68
Industry: Banks - Regional

Grupo Supervielle SA Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Grupo Supervielle S.A. is an Argentine financial services conglomerate that provides a wide array of banking and financial solutions. The company serves both individual customers and corporate entities through its distinct operational segments: Perso...

Grupo Supervielle SA Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Mar 02, 2026(Q4-2025)|% Change Since:-32.45%|Next Earnings Date:Nov 17, 2026

Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call presented a mix of operational resilience and near-term challenges. Highlights include strong loan growth (led by corporate lending), a materially stronger capital position (CET1 at 15.4%), a rebound in net financial income and NIM, improved core deposit traction, cost discipline and accelerating momentum at the digital brokerage (EOL). Offsetting these positives are a quarterly net loss driven by a 75% sequential increase in provisions, elevated net cost of risk (10.4% in the quarter), a rise in NPLs to 5.0%, and a 6% sequential decline in total deposits due to tactical deleveraging. Management provided constructive guidance for 2026 (loans, deposits, NIM, cost of risk and ROE) and signaled that provisioning trends may have peaked, supporting an optimistic outlook. On balance, operational progress and capital strength appear to outweigh near-term credit and macro pressures, supporting a cautiously positive outlook.

Positive Updates

Strong Loan Growth

Total loans grew 8% sequentially and 37% year-over-year; commercial (corporate) lending led expansion, up 25% quarter-over-quarter and 64% year-over-year, and now represents 63% of the loan portfolio.

Negative Updates

Quarterly Net Loss and Provisioning Spike

Reported an attributable net loss of ~AR 19.5 billion in 4Q'25, although improved from the ~AR 55 billion loss in the prior quarter. Loan loss provisions increased ~75% sequentially and were the primary driver of the quarterly loss.

Company Guidance

Management guided to real loan growth of 25–30% (led by corporate lending, with peso loans expected to grow faster than dollar loans), deposit growth of 20–25% (peso deposits to drive the mix and tax-amnesty upside for dollar balances), an NPL ratio of 5–6% for the year with a temporary peak in 1Q26, net cost of risk of 6.0–6.5%, NIM of 14–16%, net fee income up ~5% in real terms, structural operating expenses broadly stable in real terms, ROE of 4–9% for 2026 (with sequential improvement expected and a path to double-digit ROE by year-end 2026 and high‑teens by 2027–28 under normalization), and an ending CET1 ratio targeted at 11–13%; these projections assume macro parameters of ~22.4% inflation, 3.7% GDP growth and an exchange rate of ~1,750 ARS/USD by end‑2026.

Grupo Supervielle SA Risk Analysis

Grupo Supervielle SA disclosed 47 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Grupo Supervielle SA reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added

0 New Risks

Grupo Supervielle SA Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (68)

Financial Indicators

DE:189A against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
MCB	83Outperform	$1.18B	9.71	12.32%	1.24%	11.92%	70.43%
BFST	75Outperform	$1.06B	11.63	9.71%	1.84%	7.18%	7.94%
EQBK	72Outperform	$1.01B	10.63	11.56%	1.54%	52.75%	266.60%
Sector *	68Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
AMTB	64Neutral	$1.18B	17.76	8.03%	1.19%	-7.70%	6.96%
SBSI	64Neutral	$1.05B	10.52	11.56%	4.15%	8.56%	43.89%

* Financial Sector Average

Performance Comparison

DE:189A and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
DE:189A	Grupo Supervielle S.A.	5.10	-4.20	-45.16%
SBSI	Southside Bancshares	34.94	7.44	27.06%
EQBK	Equity Bancshares Inc.	49.20	8.01	19.46%
MCB	Metropolitan Bank Holding Corp.	96.51	28.07	41.01%
BFST	Business First Bancshares	32.56	7.83	31.68%
AMTB	Amerant Bancorp Inc. Class A	30.30	12.81	73.20%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Grupo Supervielle SA AI Stock Analysis