Zillow Group Class A (0ZG) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

For Q4 2026, Zillow expects total revenue of $635 million to $665 million, roughly flat year-over-year, including a decline in year-over-year mortgage industry purchase origination volumes of 10% to 15%; For Sale and Residential revenue are expected to decline roughly 9% to 15% year-over-year, with 400 to 500 basis points of headwind to For Sale revenue growth and 900 to 1,000 basis points of headwind to Residential revenue growth, while For Sale is expected to show similar 600 basis points relative underlying outperformance and mortgages revenue is expected to decline low single-digits year-over-year at the mid-point, with origination volume up high-single-digits and Preferred program origination volume up mid-20% year-over-year; Rentals revenue growth is expected to be similar to the 26% year-over-year growth in Q3, EBITDA expenses are expected to be $530 million to $535 million, EBITDA is expected to be $100 million to $135 million, implying 18% margins at the mid-point, and EBITDA expenses imply 5% growth year-over-year; for full-year 2026, Zillow expects approximately 10% to 11% revenue growth, including approximately 30% growth in rentals revenue, flat EBITDA margins, EBITDA of $655 million to $690 million, share-based compensation expense down more than 20% year-over-year, the housing market to be flat, and the purchase mortgage industry to be down mid-single-digits, while Preferred is expected to represent more than 75% of connections by year-end and reach 100% in the first half of 2027.