DBS Group (DBSDY) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

Management said fee and non-NII growth could continue “by the low double digits” next year “all being well” if markets are good, or be “high single-digit growth” if “the markets melt down and sentiment turns negative and volumes dry up.” Capital returns remain “SGD 0.15 per quarter committed to end of 2027”; of the SGD 3 billion buyback, SGD 0.4 billion has been spent and SGD 2.6 billion remains, with ordinary dividend growth funded by earnings growth. The planning assumption is that profit growth of “about 5% CAGR” could support dividend growth of “about 5% CAGR.” CET1 was 14%, or 14.1% after the multiplier reduction, with about SGD 5 billion above 13%; the MOR has been “13% to 13.5%,” anything above 14% is “very comfortable,” and the officially communicated range is “12.5% to 13.5%.” Net interest income guidance was “about SGD 10 million per basis points” for Sing dollar interest rates and “minus 2 basis points” for U.S. interest rates, with net interest income expected to be “shaped below 5%”; deposits grew “about 9%” this year and may return to “mid-single digits” next year. Net New Money was SGD 15 billion excluding FCNR, SGD 5 billion of FCNR, or about SGD 20 billion including FCNR, while invested AUM was 59%, private-bank invested AUM was about 70%, and discretionary AUM was SGD 59 billion for wealth and SGD 72 billion for wealth and retail.