China Merchants Bank (CIHKY) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

Management said that next year, asset and liability management quality is more important and the growth rate will lower down, with loan growth rate “to lowering down the growth rate of the loan side” becoming “a new norm”; liability management will emphasize AUM growth and more mature ways of liability origination. NIM will continue to face downward pressure, although the goal is a narrowing down of the decrease, with the absolute amount of NIM remaining at the bank industry leading level; Q3 NIM was 1.82%, flat quarter-on-quarter, but management said it “cannot say it has already been stabilized,” and that the magnitude of decline will be better than year-on-year. Customer and AUM growth are expected to have solid growth, asset quality is expected to remain sound and under control, and management hopes for “progressive and stable performance next year,” supported by wealth management, cross-border financing and intelligent bank characteristics. CMB will continue prudent provisioning and risk management, maintain a buffer above regulatory requirements, target endogenous capital growth, and strive to maximize shareholder returns while balancing ROAE, CAR ratio and dividend payout ratio; the dividend payout ratio increased from 33% to around 35% in 2024. The bank also plans to expand AI across over 1,500 work items, with relationship managers’ average in person visit per person up 13%, monthly deal volume up 20% and AUM under management per manager up 14%.