ICG plc (I2X2) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

Guidance focused on expanding fee‑related earnings (FRE) margin (excluding catch‑up fees) over the medium term while delivering FRE per share accretion: FY26 FRE was GBP350m (120p, +23% YoY) with FRE margin ex catch‑up up from 33% in FY21 to ~47% today; management fees were GBP685m (+13% YoY, 98bps management fee rate) and performance fees are expected to be 10–20% of total fee income (FY26 performance fees GBP127m including a GBP72m transition gain; GBP96m cash realized). Fundraising guidance remains a $55bn four‑year target (two years in, $40bn raised; FY26 fundraising $17bn), fee‑earning AUM stands at $87bn (up 11% YoY) with total AUM $126bn and $19bn of non‑fee‑earning AUM (≈£120m potential fees), dry powder $36bn, deployments $14bn and realizations ~ $7bn, distributions to clients $9bn. Balance sheet: GBP2.6bn of assets (5% FY return; 5‑yr avg ~10%), co‑investment cash yield c.10% (co‑invest portfolio generated ~GBP500m net cash flow), group operating cash flow GBP861m, net debt GBP113m (down from GBP629m; net debt/FRE 0.3x) with a priority to reach zero net debt before broader capital returns (87p ordinary dividend) and then consider buybacks, M&A, seeding or further co‑investments.