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Nuix Ltd.
(Sydney:NXL)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
AU$2.00
â–¼(-6.98% Downside)
Action:Upgraded
Date:08/26/26
The score is driven mainly by improving financial performance (return to profitability and strong free cash flow) and a constructive earnings outlook (ACV growth guidance and strong subscription/Neo momentum). These positives are tempered by an overbought technical setup with high volatility risk, and a relatively expensive valuation (high P/E with no dividend yield provided).
Positive Factors
Subscription and Neo Adoption
Rapid Neo adoption across a growing customer base supports a durable platform transition and creates scope for recurring expansion through migrations, upselling, and broader product usage. This strengthens Nuix’s subscription model and medium-term growth potential.
Negative Factors
Earnings and Cash-Flow Volatility
The recent recovery is encouraging, but repeated prior losses and periods of negative free cash flow show that earnings and cash generation have not yet demonstrated consistent durability. This history raises the risk that performance could weaken again during execution or demand challenges.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Subscription and Neo Adoption
Rapid Neo adoption across a growing customer base supports a durable platform transition and creates scope for recurring expansion through migrations, upselling, and broader product usage. This strengthens Nuix’s subscription model and medium-term growth potential.
Read all positive factors
Nuix Ltd. (NXL) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$625.25M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.43M
Price to Earnings (P/E)37.5
Beta (1Y)2.18
Revenue Growth18.83%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryAU
Employees400
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySoftware - Application
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.05
Shares Outstanding343,541,260
10 Day Avg. Volume1,149,168
30 Day Avg. Volume1,434,409
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.09
Price to Book (P/B)1.31
Price to Sales (P/S)1.55
P/FCF Ratio6.97
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$2.74Price Target Upside27.67% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)0.09
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$294.98M
Nuix Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Headquartered in Sydney, Australia, Nuix Limited, formerly Nuix Pty Ltd until its name change in September 2020, specializes in developing and delivering advanced investigative analytics and intelligence software solutions. Established in 2000, th...
How the Company Makes Money
Nuix makes money primarily by licensing its software and selling associated services. Its core revenue stream is software licensing (often structured as subscription and/or term-based licenses, depending on customer agreements) for its digital inv...
Nuix Ltd. Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 23, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| Next Earnings Date:Feb 22, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveys a broadly positive outlook: strong top-line and subscription metric growth (ACV +13.9%, revenue +18.8%), rapid Nuix Neo adoption (Neo ACV +179%), materially improved profitability (Adjusted EBITDA +60.4%) and a large uplift in cash flow (+154%). Management has also taken decisive structural and strategic actions (product/tech unification, GTM reset, AI focus and a targeted $15M R&D accelerator) to support medium-term platform-led growth. Key near-term risks are addressable: Discover underperformance, a single-account churn event, currency headwinds, a one-off R&D investment that will hold FY'27 EBITDA roughly flat, and an ongoing ASIC appeal. Overall, the highlights materially outweigh the lowlights, and the company appears positioned for continued platform-driven expansion.Positive Updates
Annual Contract Value (ACV) Growth
ACV finished FY'26 at $260.0M, up 13.9% year-on-year. Excluding the Linkurious acquisition, organic ACV grew 8.6% (11.1% in constant currency), demonstrating underlying subscription growth despite currency headwinds.
Negative Updates
Discover Revenue and Growth Lag
Discover (c. $50M in size) was slightly down for the year with on-premises gains offset by a decline in SaaS driven by the loss of one large contract; management has established a dedicated commercial model and committed R&D investment to address this.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Annual Contract Value (ACV) Growth
ACV finished FY'26 at $260.0M, up 13.9% year-on-year. Excluding the Linkurious acquisition, organic ACV grew 8.6% (11.1% in constant currency), demonstrating underlying subscription growth despite currency headwinds.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided FY‑27 ACV of $285–300 million (up from FY‑26 ACV of $260.0M, +13.9%), with adjusted management EBITDA expected to be similar to FY‑26’s $59.8M (22.7% margin) primarily due to a one‑off $15M R&D accelerator; growth is expected to be H2‑weighted driven by renewals, Neo migration and upsell. FY‑26 metrics underpinning the outlook: revenue $263.2M (+18.8%, +20.3% cc), Nuix Neo ACV $78.5M (+179%) across 135 customers (30% of total ACV; Neo contributed $50.4M ACV growth), multiyear deals 35% of revenue (vs 27% prior year), net dollar retention 105.2% (churn 6.6%, ~5% ex one large account), underlying cash flow $51M (+154%), free cash flow $37.4M (from $4M), net cash $49.9M (+24.8%), R&D $57.8M (22% of revenue), and Linkurious contribution of $12M ACV, $3.8M revenue and $2M EBITDA in 72 days; management expects lower percentage growth rates in FY‑27 given the higher base but continued ACV expansion potential (ICP ACV opportunity ~$500k+).Nuix Ltd. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
66
Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
72
Positive
| Breakdown | Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 263.21M | 221.50M | 220.62M | 182.47M | 152.31M |
| Gross Profit | 187.34M | 199.23M | 198.97M | 119.13M | 98.29M |
| EBITDA | 79.89M | 56.02M | 61.46M | 35.56M | 11.95M |
| Net Income | 16.45M | -9.21M | 5.03M | -5.59M | -22.79M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 560.14M | 393.43M | 397.08M | 428.19M | 421.66M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 69.94M | 39.97M | 38.03M | 29.59M | 46.85M |
| Total Debt | 40.63M | 5.02M | 11.16M | 11.12M | 13.65M |
| Total Liabilities | 246.99M | 102.63M | 110.85M | 157.34M | 152.59M |
| Stockholders Equity | 313.15M | 290.80M | 286.69M | 270.84M | 269.07M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 58.63M | 25.27M | 49.60M | -5.97M | -14.63M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 60.70M | 26.85M | 50.34M | 32.56M | 30.12M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -43.32M | -22.84M | -38.45M | -45.42M | -51.61M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 15.07M | -3.57M | -3.45M | -4.29M | -2.73M |
Nuix Ltd. Technical Analysis
Neutral
2.15
Price Trends
1.52
Positive
1.44
Positive
1.54
Positive
Market Momentum
0.09
Positive
51.76
Neutral
14.33
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:NXL, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 2.15 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.85, above the 50-day MA of 1.52, and above the 200-day MA of 1.54, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.09 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.76 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 14.33 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AU:NXL.
Nuix Ltd. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | AU$565.07M | 15.31 | 33.67% | 4.37% | 6.59% | 4.49% | |
70 Outperform | AU$625.25M | 37.47 | 5.34% | ― | 18.83% | ― | |
70 Outperform | AU$9.20B | 66.84 | 32.19% | 1.34% | 14.48% | 6.31% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
53 Neutral | AU$21.69M | -2.67 | -86.45% | ― | -16.88% | 82.25% | |
51 Neutral | AU$185.35M | -36.96 | -3.57% | ― | 2.61% | 70.72% | |
40 Underperform | AU$4.34M | -0.84 | 564.22% | ― | -1.21% | -10.88% |
* Technology Sector Average
AU:NXL
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Nuix Ltd. Corporate Events
Nuix sets date and nomination deadline for 2026 AGM
Sep 14, 2026
Nuix Limited has scheduled its Annual General Meeting for 19 November 2026, giving shareholders clarity on the key date in the company’s corporate calendar. The company also set 1 October 2026 as the deadline for nominations from individuals...
Nuix Cancels 31,516 Performance Rights in Capital Management Move
Sep 1, 2026
Nuix Limited has updated the market on changes to its capital structure, notifying the cessation of a tranche of performance rights listed under ASX code NXLAC. The company reported that 31,516 performance rights were cancelled by agreement betwee...
ECP Asset Management exits substantial holding in Nuix
Sep 1, 2026
ECP Asset Management and associated entities have ceased to be substantial shareholders in Nuix Limited, according to a notice filed under Australia’s Corporations Act. The change reflects a reduction in ECP’s relevant interest in Nuix...
Nuix Issues 1.45 Million New Shares on Conversion of Unquoted Securities
Aug 28, 2026
Nuix Ltd. has disclosed the issue of 1,449,643 new ordinary fully paid shares following the exercise or conversion of previously unquoted equity securities. The issuance, dated 25 August 2026, modestly increases the company’s share base and ...
Nuix Cancels 272,258 Lapsed Performance Rights After Vesting Conditions Not Met
Aug 28, 2026
Nuix Limited has notified the market of the cessation of 272,258 performance rights, recorded under ASX security code NXLAC, after the conditional rights lapsed because their vesting conditions were not met or became incapable of being satisfied a...
AMP Limited Ceases to Be Substantial Holder in Nuix After Share Dilution
Aug 25, 2026
AMP Limited has notified the market that it has ceased to be a substantial holder in Nuix Ltd., following the dilution of its shareholding caused by new share issuances by Nuix. The change reflects reductions in holdings across AMP-related entitie...
Nuix swings to profit on revenue surge and Linkurious acquisition
Aug 23, 2026
Nuix Limited reported a sharp improvement in financial performance for the year to 30 June 2026, shifting from a prior-year loss to a post-tax profit of $16.4 million. Revenue from ordinary activities rose 18.8% to $263.2 million, driven by multi-...
Nuix seeks ASX quotation for additional 1.19 million ordinary shares
Aug 7, 2026
Nuix Limited has applied to the Australian Securities Exchange for quotation of an additional 1,189,172 ordinary fully paid shares under the code NXL, with an issue date of 7 August 2026. The move modestly increases the company’s listed capi...
Nuix sets August date for FY26 results and investor webcast
Jul 13, 2026
Nuix has scheduled the release of its full-year 2026 financial results for Monday, 24 August 2026, with Chief Executive Officer John Ruthven and Chief Financial Officer Peter McClelland to present the figures via webcast at 9:30 a.m. AEST. The web...
Nuix Cancels 3.2 Million Performance Rights After Conditions Lapse
Jul 9, 2026
Nuix Limited has confirmed the lapse of 3,216,500 performance rights, designated under the ASX code NXLAC, after the conditions attached to these conditional securities were not met or became incapable of being satisfied. The cessation, effective ...
Nuix Issues 212,448 Unquoted Performance Rights Under Employee Incentive Plan
Jul 7, 2026
Nuix Limited has notified the market of the issue of 212,448 unquoted performance rights under its employee incentive scheme. These NXLAC performance rights, issued on 9 April 2026, are subject to transfer restrictions and will not be quoted on th...
Nuix Reports Lapse of 78,812 Performance Rights
Jul 7, 2026
Nuix Limited has notified the market of the cessation of 78,812 performance rights, recorded under ASX code NXLAC. The rights lapsed after the specified performance conditions were not met or became incapable of being satisfied, resulting in an ad...
Nuix Flags Lapse of Performance Rights, Trimming Potential Equity Dilution
Jul 7, 2026
Nuix Limited has reported the cessation of 74,845 performance rights, which lapsed on May 21, 2026 after the conditional requirements attached to these rights were not met or became incapable of being satisfied. The move slightly reduces the compa...
Nuix Issues 42,017 New Shares After Option Conversions
Jul 7, 2026
Nuix Limited has issued 42,017 new ordinary fully paid shares following the exercise or conversion of previously unquoted options or other convertible securities. The new securities were issued on July 1, 2026, and are recorded under the company&#...
Nuix Appoints New Company Secretary to Strengthen ASX Governance Oversight
Jul 5, 2026
Nuix has announced a change in its corporate governance structure, appointing deputy company secretary Nicholas Vesic as company secretary effective 6 July 2026. The move allows former company secretary Ms Meyer to concentrate on broader responsib...
Nuix board transition as Sir Iain Lobban retires but stays on as adviser
Jun 25, 2026
Nuix has announced that non-executive director Sir Iain Lobban will retire from its board at the conclusion of the company’s Annual General Meeting in November, ending a formal board tenure that began in 2020 following his advisory role from...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.