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Bubs Australia Ltd.
(Sydney:BUB)
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Rating:46Neutral
Price Target:
AU$0.09
▲(2.22% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/22/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance—especially materially negative operating/free cash flow and renewed losses alongside higher debt. Technicals add a modest drag due to a weak trend, while valuation is constrained by loss-making (negative P/E) and no dividend data. The earnings call provides some offset with guidance for margin normalization and evidence of underlying EBITDA improvement, but execution and cash funding risk remain key.
Positive Factors
Sustained Revenue Growth
Revenue growth has remained positive despite external headwinds, indicating expanding commercial traction across the portfolio. Continued top-line momentum can support broader scale, improve operating leverage, and provide a durable base for future investment in products, marketing, and distribution.
Negative Factors
Persistent Negative Cash Flow
Deeply negative operating and free cash flow indicate that accounting performance is not yet translating into dependable cash generation. Continued outflows can increase reliance on external funding, restrict investment flexibility, and heighten execution risk while the company scales.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Sustained Revenue Growth
Revenue growth has remained positive despite external headwinds, indicating expanding commercial traction across the portfolio. Continued top-line momentum can support broader scale, improve operating leverage, and provide a durable base for future investment in products, marketing, and distribution.
Read all positive factors
Bubs Australia Ltd. (BUB) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$85.93M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.81M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.62
Revenue Growth9.08%
EPS Growth-183.87%
CountryAU
Employees118
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryPackaged Foods
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)>-0.01
Shares Outstanding895,130,070
10 Day Avg. Volume1,227,942
30 Day Avg. Volume1,805,988
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.08
Price to Book (P/B)1.76
Price to Sales (P/S)0.62
P/FCF Ratio-4.40
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$0.17Price Target Upside88.89% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)<0.01
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$124.45M
Bubs Australia Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Bubs Australia Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sell infant and adult chilled and powdered goat dairy products in Australia, China, the United States, and internationally. The company offers goat and cow milk infant formul...
How the Company Makes Money
Bubs Australia makes money primarily by selling its infant nutrition products—most importantly infant formula and, to a lesser extent, baby foods and snacks—to customers through a mix of domestic and international channels. Revenue is generated wh...
Bubs Australia Ltd. Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 26, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 01, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a cautiously optimistic tone. There are clear operational and commercial positives: 9% group revenue growth, a strong U.S. performance (+24% YoY and >10,000 stores), positive underlying EBITDA of $5.3 million, inventory rebuilt to targeted levels, marketing reinvestment, cost savings of $1.15 million, and progress toward FDA approval. These achievements were, however, offset in FY26 by notable one‑off and external cost pressures—airfreight (~$3.0M), tariffs (~$2.6M), regulatory reset/inventory provisioning (~$3.9M), a reported EBITDA loss of $1.8M, a 9.4% decline in gross profit, and a 25% decline in Rest of World revenue. Management describes many hit items as largely one‑off and expects normalization and margin recovery in FY27. Overall, the positives (sustained top‑line growth, U.S. momentum, underlying profitability and strategic initiatives) are presented as outweighing the temporary negatives.Positive Updates
Group Revenue Growth
Total revenue grew ~9.2% year‑on‑year to just under $112.0 million (FY26), demonstrating top‑line growth despite external headwinds.
Negative Updates
Reported EBITDA Loss
Reported EBITDA was negative $1.8 million for FY26 (within guidance), driven by several one‑off and external cost pressures despite positive underlying EBITDA.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Group Revenue Growth
Total revenue grew ~9.2% year‑on‑year to just under $112.0 million (FY26), demonstrating top‑line growth despite external headwinds.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated guidance that Bubs remains a growth business and expects revenues to continue rising as product flows normalize, noting FY26 revenue of ~$112.0m (up 9.2% YoY) with the U.S. at $65.8m (59% of sales, +24% YoY), China $21.4m (19.1%), Australia 16.3% and Rest of World ~ $6.4m (down ~25%); they said gross margin (FY26: 39.8%; gross profit $44.5m, -9.4% YoY) should improve/normalize in FY27, the inventory rebuild is largely complete at $36.3m (up $16.2m from ~ $20m to cover a 4–6 month supply lead time), and the business finished an airfreight program (~$3.0m) and absorbed one‑offs including tariffs (~$2.6m) and regulatory reset costs (~$3.9m) that contributed to a reported EBITDA loss of $1.8m (within guidance) but an underlying EBITDA of $5.3m; OpEx was $48.8m (+5%, OpEx/revenue 44% vs 45% prior), marketing spend was up 21% (management now targets mid‑teens % of revenue), logistics/manufacturing efficiencies have delivered $1.15m cash savings, goat herd commitments up 70%, and the FDA review is in final stages though no timing commitment was given.Bubs Australia Ltd. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
28
Negative
| Breakdown | Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 111.86M | 102.54M | 79.70M | 60.11M | 89.30M |
| Gross Profit | 43.21M | 49.06M | 38.70M | -11.68M | 26.21M |
| EBITDA | -2.77M | 5.49M | -19.13M | -104.29M | -7.45M |
| Net Income | -4.62M | 5.54M | -20.99M | -108.35M | -11.38M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 72.24M | 57.17M | 66.75M | 65.60M | 125.94M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 9.41M | 17.43M | 17.52M | 26.05M | 16.31M |
| Total Debt | 15.92M | 967.50K | 7.00M | 4.41M | 4.92M |
| Total Liabilities | 33.21M | 14.69M | 29.88M | 23.92M | 37.73M |
| Stockholders Equity | 39.03M | 42.48M | 36.87M | 41.68M | 88.21M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -15.64M | 6.05M | -26.52M | -46.74M | -9.93M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -15.14M | 6.13M | -26.33M | -46.49M | -9.37M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.21M | -118.11K | -189.82K | -4.25M | -1.56M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 8.30M | -6.03M | 17.99M | 60.48M | -643.21K |
Bubs Australia Ltd. Technical Analysis
Negative
0.09
Price Trends
0.10
Negative
0.09
Negative
0.10
Negative
Market Momentum
>-0.01
Positive
28.66
Positive
3.68
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:BUB, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.09 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.10, below the 50-day MA of 0.10, and below the 200-day MA of 0.10, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 28.66 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 3.68 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:BUB.
Bubs Australia Ltd. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | AU$175.35M | 15.89 | 13.83% | 2.36% | 13.26% | 49.05% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
49 Neutral | AU$33.25M | -0.53 | 13.40% | 1.21% | 8.82% | 55.22% | |
46 Neutral | AU$85.93M | -18.08 | -11.08% | ― | 9.08% | -183.87% | |
46 Neutral | AU$12.55M | -1.68 | -88.51% | ― | 11.96% | -81.99% | |
43 Neutral | AU$12.78M | -4.47 | -12.90% | ― | 0.46% | 46.48% | |
39 Underperform | AU$19.28M | -0.01 | -130.72% | ― | -33.05% | 94.22% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
AU:BUB
Bubs Australia Ltd.
0.09
-0.07
-43.13%
AU:NOU
Noumi Limited
0.12
-0.02
-14.29%
AU:AHF
Australian Dairy Nutritionals Group
0.02
-0.02
-54.05%
AU:NUC
Nuchev Pty Ltd
0.08
-0.05
-38.46%
AU:NGS
Nutritional Growth Solutions Ltd.
0.02
>-0.01
-15.00%
AU:CLV
Clover Corporation Limited
1.02
0.41
66.94%
Bubs Australia Ltd. Corporate Events
Bubs Australia Updates Market on Director Joe Coote’s Equity Holdings
Oct 20, 2026
Bubs Australia Ltd has reported a change in the securities held by director Joe Coote, detailing movements in his performance rights and ordinary shareholdings. The disclosure forms part of the company’s ongoing compliance with ASX listing r...
Bubs Australia Issues 13 Million Unquoted Performance Rights Under Incentive Scheme
Oct 14, 2026
Bubs Australia Ltd. has notified the market of the issue of 13,050,000 unquoted performance rights under its employee incentive scheme, dated October 13, 2026. The new performance rights, which are not intended to be quoted on the ASX, underscore ...
Bubs Australia Issues 1 Million New Shares Under Cleansing Notice
Oct 13, 2026
Bubs Australia has issued 1,000,000 new ordinary shares under Australian corporate law without a prospectus disclosure, and has confirmed ongoing compliance with key financial reporting and continuous disclosure obligations. The company also state...
Bubs Australia Seeks ASX Quotation for 1 Million New Shares Under Employee Scheme
Oct 12, 2026
Bubs Australia Ltd. has applied for quotation on the ASX of 1,000,000 ordinary fully paid shares under its employee incentive scheme. The new securities, to be issued and quoted on October 13, 2026, expand the company’s listed share base and...
Bubs Australia Director Paul Jensen Increases Indirect Shareholding
Sep 16, 2026
Bubs Australia Ltd. has disclosed a change in director Paul Jensen’s indirect shareholding through the Jensen Family Retirement Fund, managed via Taranaki Holdings Ltd. The filing reports that Jensen increased his stake by acquiring addition...
Bubs Australia Sets 2026 AGM Date and Director Nomination Deadline
Sep 14, 2026
Bubs Australia Ltd. has scheduled its 2026 Annual General Meeting for 18 November 2026, in line with ASX listing requirements, and set 6 October 2026 as the closing date for director nominations. The announcement provides shareholders and potentia...
Bubs Australia Cautions on Risks Around Forward-Looking Disclosures
Sep 10, 2026
Bubs Australia has released a presentation outlining its current position and expectations, emphasising that the material is a high-level overview and should be read alongside its other announcements lodged on the Australian Securities Exchange. T...
Bubs Australia to Brief Investors on Permanent FDA Authorisation
Sep 8, 2026
Bubs Australia will host a webinar on 10 September 2026 to discuss its recent permanent regulatory authorisation from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, a milestone announced the previous day. The session, led by the chief executive, chief fin...
Bubs Australia Wins Permanent FDA Approval to Supply U.S. Infant Formula Market
Sep 6, 2026
Bubs Australia has secured permanent regulatory authorisation from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for its Bubs Goat, Bubs 365 Day Grass Fed and Bubs Essential infant formula products, confirming that its manufacturing systems and scientific...
Bubs Australia Requests Trading Halt Ahead of FDA Update
Sep 4, 2026
Bubs Australia Ltd, an ASX-listed infant nutrition producer, focuses on supplying infant formula and baby food products to domestic and international markets, where regulatory clearances such as FDA approvals are central to its expansion plans and...
Bubs Australia Director Lori Marcus Acquires 100,000 Shares On-Market
Sep 4, 2026
Bubs Australia has disclosed a change in director interests, with director Lori Tauber Marcus acquiring 100,000 ordinary shares in the company. The on-market purchase, executed on 3 September 2026 at $0.095 per share, marks a shift from no prior h...
Bubs Australia Director Pascal De Petrini Increases Stake with 800,000-Share On-Market Buy
Sep 3, 2026
Bubs Australia has disclosed a change in director Pascal De Petrini’s holdings, with the director acquiring 800,000 ordinary shares in two on-market purchases on 1 and 2 September 2026 at prices of $0.087 and $0.086 per share, respectively. ...
Bubs Australia Director Paul Jensen Lifts Indirect Shareholding via On‑Market Purchases
Sep 2, 2026
Bubs Australia has disclosed a change in director Paul Jensen’s indirect interests in the company’s shares, lodged in accordance with ASX listing rules. Jensen holds his interest through Taranaki Holdings Ltd as beneficiary of the Jens...
Bubs Australia Updates ASX Corporate Governance Disclosures for 2026
Aug 26, 2026
Bubs Australia has lodged an updated corporate governance statement for the year ended 30 June 2026, confirming that the document is current as of 27 August 2026 and board-approved. The statement outlines compliance with ASX Corporate Governance C...
Bubs Australia lifts FY26 revenue on U.S. growth but margins squeezed by regulatory costs
Aug 26, 2026
Bubs Australia reported a 9.2% increase in FY26 revenue to $111.9 million, driven primarily by 24% growth in the U.S. market as distribution expanded to more than 10,000 stores and demand for premium goat formula remained strong. Despite higher ma...
Bubs Australia Lifts Revenue and Underlying EBITDA but Slips to FY26 Loss
Aug 26, 2026
Bubs Australia Limited, a producer of premium infant nutrition and formula products, operates in the dairy-based baby food industry with a focus on higher-value branded offerings for domestic and international markets. The company’s financia...
Bubs Australia Sets Date for FY26 Financial Results and Investor Webcast
Aug 4, 2026
Bubs Australia has announced it will publish its financial results for the year ended 30 June 2026 on 27 August 2026, with a webcast briefing to be hosted the same day by Chief Executive Officer Joe Coote and Chief Financial Officer Chris Rowe. Th...
Bubs Australia lifts Q4 revenue, improves liquidity as FDA review nears final stage
Jul 31, 2026
Infant formula maker Bubs Australia reported fourth-quarter FY26 net revenue of $30.9 million, an 11.2% rise on the prior corresponding period, bringing full-year net revenue to $111.9 million, up 9.2% and in line with guidance. Management said th...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.