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Bubs Australia Ltd.
(Sydney:BUB)
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Rating:48Neutral
Price Target:
AU$0.09
▼(-5.56% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/28/26
The score is held back primarily by weak and volatile financial performance—especially negative operating/free cash flow and the 2026 return to losses alongside higher debt. Technicals are mixed (neutral momentum but a longer-term downtrend), valuation looks mid-range with no dividend support, and the latest earnings call adds some upside from improving operational execution and margin normalization guidance but not enough to offset cash-flow and profitability risk.
Positive Factors
Sustained Revenue Growth and U.S. Expansion
Consistent group growth and strong U.S. expansion indicate rising product adoption and broader distribution. The scale achieved across retail formats can support repeat purchases and improve operating leverage over the next several periods.
Negative Factors
Persistent Negative Cash Generation
Recurring operating and free cash outflows remain the clearest fundamental weakness. Unless working-capital and operating efficiency improve, continued cash burn could require external funding and constrain investment in growth.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Sustained Revenue Growth and U.S. Expansion
Consistent group growth and strong U.S. expansion indicate rising product adoption and broader distribution. The scale achieved across retail formats can support repeat purchases and improve operating leverage over the next several periods.
Read all positive factors
Bubs Australia Ltd. (BUB) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
Market Cap
AU$78.68M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.17M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.83
Revenue Growth9.08%
EPS Growth-183.87%
CountryAU
Employees118
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryPackaged Foods
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)>-0.01
Shares Outstanding894,130,070
10 Day Avg. Volume1,257,911
30 Day Avg. Volume1,173,263
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.08
Price to Book (P/B)1.76
Price to Sales (P/S)0.62
P/FCF Ratio-4.40
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
AU$0.13Price Target Upside48.15% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)<0.01
Revenue Forecast (FY)AU$127.18M
Bubs Australia Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Bubs Australia Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sell infant and adult chilled and powdered goat dairy products in Australia, China, the United States, and internationally. The company offers goat and cow milk infant formul...
How the Company Makes Money
Bubs Australia makes money primarily by selling its infant nutrition products—most importantly infant formula and, to a lesser extent, baby foods and snacks—to customers through a mix of domestic and international channels. Revenue is generated wh...
Bubs Australia Ltd. Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 26, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 01, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a cautiously optimistic tone. There are clear operational and commercial positives: 9% group revenue growth, a strong U.S. performance (+24% YoY and >10,000 stores), positive underlying EBITDA of $5.3 million, inventory rebuilt to targeted levels, marketing reinvestment, cost savings of $1.15 million, and progress toward FDA approval. These achievements were, however, offset in FY26 by notable one‑off and external cost pressures—airfreight (~$3.0M), tariffs (~$2.6M), regulatory reset/inventory provisioning (~$3.9M), a reported EBITDA loss of $1.8M, a 9.4% decline in gross profit, and a 25% decline in Rest of World revenue. Management describes many hit items as largely one‑off and expects normalization and margin recovery in FY27. Overall, the positives (sustained top‑line growth, U.S. momentum, underlying profitability and strategic initiatives) are presented as outweighing the temporary negatives.Positive Updates
Group Revenue Growth
Total revenue grew ~9.2% year‑on‑year to just under $112.0 million (FY26), demonstrating top‑line growth despite external headwinds.
Negative Updates
Reported EBITDA Loss
Reported EBITDA was negative $1.8 million for FY26 (within guidance), driven by several one‑off and external cost pressures despite positive underlying EBITDA.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Group Revenue Growth
Total revenue grew ~9.2% year‑on‑year to just under $112.0 million (FY26), demonstrating top‑line growth despite external headwinds.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated guidance that Bubs remains a growth business and expects revenues to continue rising as product flows normalize, noting FY26 revenue of ~$112.0m (up 9.2% YoY) with the U.S. at $65.8m (59% of sales, +24% YoY), China $21.4m (19.1%), Australia 16.3% and Rest of World ~ $6.4m (down ~25%); they said gross margin (FY26: 39.8%; gross profit $44.5m, -9.4% YoY) should improve/normalize in FY27, the inventory rebuild is largely complete at $36.3m (up $16.2m from ~ $20m to cover a 4–6 month supply lead time), and the business finished an airfreight program (~$3.0m) and absorbed one‑offs including tariffs (~$2.6m) and regulatory reset costs (~$3.9m) that contributed to a reported EBITDA loss of $1.8m (within guidance) but an underlying EBITDA of $5.3m; OpEx was $48.8m (+5%, OpEx/revenue 44% vs 45% prior), marketing spend was up 21% (management now targets mid‑teens % of revenue), logistics/manufacturing efficiencies have delivered $1.15m cash savings, goat herd commitments up 70%, and the FDA review is in final stages though no timing commitment was given.Bubs Australia Ltd. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
Cash Flow
28
Negative
| Breakdown | Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 111.86M | 102.54M | 79.70M | 60.11M | 89.30M |
| Gross Profit | 43.21M | 49.06M | 38.70M | -11.68M | 26.21M |
| EBITDA | -2.77M | 4.92M | -19.42M | -104.29M | -7.82M |
| Net Income | -4.62M | 5.54M | -20.99M | -108.35M | -11.38M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 72.24M | 57.17M | 66.75M | 65.60M | 125.94M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 9.41M | 17.43M | 17.52M | 26.05M | 16.31M |
| Total Debt | 15.92M | 967.50K | 7.00M | 4.41M | 4.92M |
| Total Liabilities | 33.21M | 14.69M | 29.88M | 23.92M | 37.73M |
| Stockholders Equity | 39.03M | 42.48M | 36.87M | 41.68M | 88.21M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -15.64M | 6.05M | -26.52M | -46.74M | -9.93M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -15.14M | 6.13M | -26.33M | -46.49M | -9.37M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.21M | -118.11K | -189.82K | -4.25M | -1.56M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 8.30M | -6.03M | 17.99M | 60.48M | -643.21K |
Bubs Australia Ltd. Technical Analysis
Positive
0.09
Price Trends
0.09
Positive
0.09
Positive
0.11
Negative
Market Momentum
<0.01
Positive
54.79
Neutral
64.44
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:BUB, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 0.09 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.09, above the 50-day MA of 0.09, and below the 200-day MA of 0.11, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 54.79 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 64.44 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:BUB.
Bubs Australia Ltd. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | AU$145.29M | 16.35 | 12.22% | 2.27% | 27.60% | 96.31% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
49 Neutral | AU$33.25M | -0.51 | 13.40% | ― | 8.82% | 55.22% | |
48 Neutral | AU$78.68M | -18.27 | -11.08% | ― | 9.08% | -183.87% | |
46 Neutral | AU$13.33M | -1.79 | -88.51% | ― | 11.96% | -81.99% | |
43 Neutral | AU$14.17M | -4.47 | -12.90% | ― | 0.46% | 46.48% | |
39 Underperform | AU$6.99M | -0.01 | 226.76% | ― | -32.83% | 83.37% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
AU:BUB
Bubs Australia Ltd.
0.09
-0.07
-41.88%
AU:NOU
Noumi Limited
0.12
-0.04
-25.00%
AU:AHF
Australian Dairy Nutritionals Group
0.02
-0.02
-57.14%
AU:NUC
Nuchev Pty Ltd
0.09
-0.06
-43.33%
AU:NGS
Nutritional Growth Solutions Ltd.
0.02
<0.01
16.67%
AU:CLV
Clover Corporation Limited
0.89
0.33
60.62%
Bubs Australia Ltd. Corporate Events
Bubs Australia Updates ASX Corporate Governance Disclosures for 2026
Aug 26, 2026
Bubs Australia has lodged an updated corporate governance statement for the year ended 30 June 2026, confirming that the document is current as of 27 August 2026 and board-approved. The statement outlines compliance with ASX Corporate Governance C...
Bubs Australia lifts FY26 revenue on U.S. growth but margins squeezed by regulatory costs
Aug 26, 2026
Bubs Australia reported a 9.2% increase in FY26 revenue to $111.9 million, driven primarily by 24% growth in the U.S. market as distribution expanded to more than 10,000 stores and demand for premium goat formula remained strong. Despite higher ma...
Bubs Australia Lifts Revenue and Underlying EBITDA but Slips to FY26 Loss
Aug 26, 2026
Bubs Australia Limited, a producer of premium infant nutrition and formula products, operates in the dairy-based baby food industry with a focus on higher-value branded offerings for domestic and international markets. The company’s financia...
Bubs Australia Sets Date for FY26 Financial Results and Investor Webcast
Aug 4, 2026
Bubs Australia has announced it will publish its financial results for the year ended 30 June 2026 on 27 August 2026, with a webcast briefing to be hosted the same day by Chief Executive Officer Joe Coote and Chief Financial Officer Chris Rowe. Th...
Bubs Australia lifts Q4 revenue, improves liquidity as FDA review nears final stage
Jul 31, 2026
Infant formula maker Bubs Australia reported fourth-quarter FY26 net revenue of $30.9 million, an 11.2% rise on the prior corresponding period, bringing full-year net revenue to $111.9 million, up 9.2% and in line with guidance. Management said th...
Bubs Australia Names Veteran Dairy Executive as New CFO
Jul 10, 2026
Bubs Australia has announced the resignation of Chief Financial Officer Naomi Verloop, who was recognised for her contribution to financial performance, governance, strategic planning and stakeholder engagement during her tenure. Chief Executive O...
Bubs Australia Targets Growth Amid FY26 Headwinds and U.S. Expansion
May 28, 2026
Bubs Australia expects FY26 revenue of $105–115 million, reflecting underlying growth despite external headwinds, with reported EBITDA projected to range from a small loss to a modest profit and underlying EBITDA of $4–8 million. The c...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.