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AppLovin (APP) AI Stock Analysis

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APP

AppLovin

(NASDAQ:APP)

Select Model
Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:$257.00â–²(4.68% Upside)
Action:reiterated
Date:10/31/26

The score is driven primarily by very strong profitability and cash generation, reinforced by upbeat guidance and operational momentum from the latest earnings call. These strengths are tempered by weak technicals (clear downtrend and negative momentum) and some financial risk from leverage, while valuation looks reasonable on a P/E basis.

Positive Factors
Exceptional ProfitabilityAppLovin’s exceptionally high TTM margins show that its software and advertising platform converts revenue into substantial operating and net earnings. This profitability provides resources for product investment, supports resilience across market conditions, and strengthens the durability of its business model.
Negative Factors
Meaningful LeverageDebt still exceeds equity, leaving AppLovin more exposed to weaker operating periods than a less leveraged software company. Although leverage has improved materially, the capital structure can amplify earnings pressure and limit flexibility if growth or cash generation moderates.

AppLovin Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)

Adjusted EBITDA by SegmentShows profitability across different business units, highlighting which segments are driving earnings and where there might be opportunities or challenges in cost management.

$0.00$500.00M$1.00B$1.50BMar 21Jun 21Sep 21Dec 21Mar 22Jun 22Sep 22Dec 22Mar 23Jun 23Sep 23Dec 23Mar 24Jun 24Sep 24Dec 24Mar 25Jun 25Sep 25Dec 25Mar 26Jun 26
Chart Insights

AppLovin’s adjusted‑EBITDA has consolidated into Advertising as the clear profit engine while Apps’ contribution fell to essentially nil by mid‑2025, signaling a structural shift (reclassification, divestment, or wind‑down) that concentrates earnings power and risk in the ad stack. That concentration helps explain the company’s exceptional margins and cash generation per the call, but it also raises dependency on AXON/mediation competitiveness and the pace at which e‑commerce/self‑serve and generative‑AI creative scale — those adoption and conversion metrics will drive upside or downside from here.

Data provided by:The Fly

AppLovin (APP) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

-80%-60%-40%-20%0%20%APP-60.40%SPY+13.75%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
Market Cap
$82.48B
Dividend Yield
―
Average Volume (3M)
5.13M
Price to Earnings (P/E)
18.8
Beta (1Y)
3.40
Revenue Growth
28.52%
EPS Growth
90.65%
Country
US
Employees
887
Sector
Communication Services
Sector Strength
60
Industry
Software - Application

AppLovin Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

AppLovin Corporation provides a specialized software platform focused on empowering mobile application developers to enhance the marketing and revenue generation of their products. With operations spanning the United States and international markets,...

How the Company Makes Money

AppLovin primarily makes money by providing advertising technology that enables advertisers to buy mobile app advertising inventory and enables app publishers (developers) to monetize their apps. Its key revenue streams are: (1) Advertising revenue f...

AppLovin Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 04, 2026(Q2-2026)|% Change Since:-41.24%|Next Earnings Date:Feb 16, 2027
Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call conveyed a predominantly positive operational and financial picture: very strong year-over-year revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth, high margins, substantial free cash flow, a clean resolution to an SEC inquiry, and explicit momentum in the consumer vertical and product launch. However, management acknowledged near-term execution friction — principally the timing of model uplifts that caused results to fall slightly below internal expectations, higher compute costs, temporary free cash flow timing issues, and product bottlenecks around creative and self-service onboarding. The company provided confident Q3 guidance and noted that the key model improvements are now live, supporting a reacceleration narrative.

Positive Updates

Strong Revenue Growth
Second quarter revenue of $1.92 billion, up 53% year-over-year and up 4% sequentially; result was just below the midpoint of guidance but still demonstrates high growth across the business.

Negative Updates

Missed Internal Expectations This Quarter
Company acknowledged revenue and adjusted EBITDA landed just below the midpoint of guidance and below internal standards, attributing the shortfall to the timing of model uplifts rather than demand weakness.

Company Guidance

AppLovin guided Q3 revenue of $2.055–$2.085 billion (≈46%–48% YoY, ≈7%–8% sequential) and adjusted EBITDA of $1.71–$1.74 billion (≈48%–50% YoY) implying an adjusted EBITDA margin of ~83%; the outlook incorporates model improvements already live, higher training/inference compute costs (management noted roughly $0.10 of compute per incremental dollar of revenue) and explicitly excludes additional model releases not yet deployed. For context, Q2 actuals were $1.92 billion revenue (+53% YoY, +4% QoQ) and $1.61 billion adjusted EBITDA (+58% YoY, margins +~300 bps, 70% QoQ flow‑through), free cash flow of $863 million (conversion expected to normalize to ~75% of adjusted EBITDA for the full year), ending cash of $3.05 billion vs. $3.7 billion total debt (net leverage ≈0.1x TTM adj. EBITDA), 335 million shares outstanding after repurchasing ~1.14 million shares for $551 million with ~$1.8 billion remaining authorization, and management reiterated a long‑term growth view of roughly 30% annual compounding.

AppLovin Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Fundamentals are strong overall: Income Statement strength is exceptional (92) with very high margins and improved TTM growth; Cash Flow is a standout (95) with strong operating/FCF and high cash-to-earnings conversion. The main offset is balance-sheet risk (68) from still-meaningful leverage (debt > equity), despite improvement versus 2024.

Income Statement

92Very Positive

Balance Sheet

68Positive

Cash Flow

95Very Positive
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue6.83B5.48B3.22B1.84B2.82B2.79B
Gross Profit6.04B4.82B2.70B1.49B1.56B1.81B
EBITDA5.55B4.35B2.38B1.26B513.77M580.54M
Net Income4.41B3.33B1.58B357.21M-192.75M35.45M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets8.27B7.26B5.87B5.36B5.85B6.16B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments3.05B2.49B741.41M502.15M1.08B1.52B
Total Debt3.52B3.54B3.56B3.18B3.28B3.33B
Total Liabilities5.11B5.12B4.78B4.10B3.95B4.03B
Stockholders Equity3.16B2.13B1.09B1.26B1.90B2.14B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow4.50B3.94B2.09B1.06B412.11M360.46M
Operating Cash Flow4.53B3.97B2.10B1.06B412.77M361.85M
Investing Cash Flow-72.53M402.81M-106.75M-77.83M-1.37B-1.21B
Financing Cash Flow-2.64B-2.59B-1.75B-1.56B-526.85M3.11B

AppLovin Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNegative
Last Price245.51

Price Trends

50DMA291.60Negative
100DMA357.63Negative
200DMA412.31Negative

Market Momentum

MACD-15.25Positive
RSI37.36Neutral
STOCH19.60Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For APP, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 245.51 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 263.23, below the 50-day MA of 291.60, and below the 200-day MA of 412.31, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -15.25 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.36 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 19.60 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for APP.

AppLovin Risk Analysis

AppLovin disclosed 47 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. AppLovin reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.

Higher RiskSector Avg.Lower RiskFinance & CorporateTech & InnovationLegal & RegulatoryProductionAbility to SellMacro & Political
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added

0 New Risks

AppLovin Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)

Financial Indicators

APP against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
DVDV80Outperform$2.12B33.025.82%―7.16%51.45%
ZETAZETA78Outperform$7.66B-3519.32-0.26%―35.91%94.31%
APPAPP75Outperform$76.58B18.78193.10%―28.52%90.65%
UU66Neutral$17.11B-29.76-18.85%―13.98%-27.86%
PUBMPUBM64Neutral$709.21M-53.83-5.41%―-1.04%-710.67%
Sector *60Neutral$48.67B4.58-11.27%4.14%2.83%-41.78%
APPSAPPS53Neutral$1.03B-40.68-14.77%―19.24%60.41%

* Communication Services Sector Average

Performance Comparison

-50%0%50%100%150%APPAPPSUPUBMDVZETADec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
APP and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
APPAppLovin Corp. Class A245.51-375.85-60.49%
APPSDigital Turbine Inc.9.192.9346.81%
UUnity Software, Inc.40.480.551.38%
PUBMPubmatic Inc16.158.77118.83%
DVDoubleverify Holdings, Inc.13.542.5723.43%
ZETAZeta Global Holdings Corp. Class A30.9711.3958.17%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Oct 31, 2026