Air New Zealand (ANZFF) Q4 2026 Earnings Report

The call reflects a mixed outlook: strong and visible operational progress (on-time performance, fleet returns, loyalty growth, digital and transformation gains) alongside significant financial stress from elevated fuel prices, engine-related costs, higher maintenance and aviation system inflation that drove a FY26 loss and higher leverage. Management has identified cost savings and transformation benefits and expects some transitory costs to unwind, but near-term profitability remains uncertain due to fuel and aviation cost risks.

Air New Zealand did not give FY27 earnings guidance because of jet‑fuel volatility (currently ~USD140–150/bbl), but provided a clear operating and risk profile: group capacity is planned to grow 2–4% (first half skewed lower), domestic broadly flat, Tasman & Pacific +3–5% and long‑haul +2–4% (2026 capacity was ~10% below pre‑COVID); as of 14 Aug ~80% of H1 ’27 fuel volumes and ~38% of H2 were hedged (≈60% for the full year) with a ~20% H1 crack‑spread overlay, and at an assumed jet price of USD130/bbl FY27 fuel would be ~NZD2.1bn. Management expects a residual engine‑availability hit of $70–90m in 2027, maintenance to be $50–100m lower than 2026, incremental depreciation of $110–130m, ~NZD200m of remaining cabin investment over two years, and has identified $135m of additional annualised savings for 2027 after delivering $94m of transformation benefits in 2026. Balance‑sheet metrics: liquidity $1.6bn, net debt ~NZD1.9bn (net‑debt/EBITDA 3.8x), no final dividend, and the focus remains returning to profitability to restore leverage toward the 1.5–2.5x target.