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Afya
(NASDAQ:AFYA)
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Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
$15.50
▲(8.01% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/18/26
AFYA’s score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (high margins and solid cash conversion) and attractive valuation (low P/E and high dividend yield). The rating is tempered by weaker technical momentum (below key moving averages, negative MACD) and earnings-call risks around near-term margin pressure, high borrowing costs, and some mixed trends in product/segment engagement.
Positive Factors
Undergraduate Medical Education Growth
The undergraduate segment is Afya’s core recurring revenue base. Expanding seat capacity, student enrollment and tuition pricing support durable growth, while medical education demand and the company’s established Brazilian position can reinforce retention and pricing power.
Negative Factors
Investment Cycle Pressuring Margins
Higher spending may strengthen Afya’s products over time, but it currently reduces operating leverage and creates execution risk. Margin recovery depends on investments translating into durable enrollment, engagement and revenue growth across newer businesses.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Undergraduate Medical Education Growth
The undergraduate segment is Afya’s core recurring revenue base. Expanding seat capacity, student enrollment and tuition pricing support durable growth, while medical education demand and the company’s established Brazilian position can reinforce retention and pricing power.
Read all positive factors
Afya (AFYA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$1.31B
Dividend Yield4.55%
Average Volume (3M)78.52K
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.5
Beta (1Y)0.43
Revenue Growth16.99%
EPS Growth23.72%
CountryUS
Employees9,395
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryEducation & Training Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)8.74
Shares Outstanding52,878,490
10 Day Avg. Volume78,346
30 Day Avg. Volume78,516
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.63
Price to Book (P/B)1.57
Price to Sales (P/S)2.11
P/FCF Ratio7.37
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$21.00Price Target Upside46.34% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)8.96
Revenue Forecast (FY)$3.99B
Afya Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Afya Limited, operating through its subsidiaries, is a prominent medical education provider in Brazil. The company delivers a comprehensive array of educational products and services primarily focused on the medical field, encompassing medical sch...
How the Company Makes Money
Afya generates revenue primarily by charging tuition and related academic fees for its undergraduate medical school programs, which tend to be the company’s core and most recurring revenue stream. In addition, Afya earns revenue from its continuin...
Afya Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 13, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a predominately positive operational and financial picture: revenue, net income, EPS, cash flow and several unit-growth metrics (medical seats, students, clinical management payers) all improved year-over-year. However, near-term margin pressure driven by an investment cycle, a mix-driven slowdown in continued education revenue despite strong student growth, engagement softness in some product lines (Whitebook monthly users) and a relatively high cost of debt introduce tangible execution and timing risks. On balance the company shows resilient cash generation, conservative leverage and active capital returns while investing for future growth.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth
Revenue for the first half of 2026 reached BRL 1.985 billion, up 7% year-over-year; second-quarter revenue was BRL 972 million, up 6% year-over-year.
Negative Updates
Margin Contraction Due to Investment Cycle
Adjusted EBITDA margin contracted ~190 basis points YoY to 46.2% for the six-month period (Q2 margin 41.8%), primarily reflecting lower gross profit contribution from continued education and higher sales & marketing and product investment across continued education and medical practice solutions.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth
Revenue for the first half of 2026 reached BRL 1.985 billion, up 7% year-over-year; second-quarter revenue was BRL 972 million, up 6% year-over-year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management maintained full‑year adjusted EBITDA guidance of BRL 1.7–1.8 billion (H1 adjusted EBITDA BRL 918m; Q2 BRL 470m), with H1 revenue BRL 1.985 billion (up 7% YoY) and Q2 revenue BRL 972m (up 6%); CapEx guidance remains BRL 340–380m (H1 spent ~30% of guidance, with acceleration expected in H2); they expect an effective tax rate around 10% for 2026 after a ~BRL 20m Pillar Two benefit. Balance‑sheet and cash metrics supporting the guidance include net debt BRL 1,394m (net debt/EBITDA ex‑IFRS16 0.8x), gross debt BRL 2.4bn with average cost 15.1% and duration 3.7 years, operating cash flow BRL 806m (up 3% YoY) and H1 free cash flow to equity BRL 423m; capital returned to shareholders totaled BRL 448m in H1 (106% of FCFE), including BRL 307m in Q2 dividends (40% of 2025 net income) and 2.6m shares repurchased of a 4m program (1.4m remaining). Management reiterated targeted outcomes for continuing education (high single‑digit growth in H2), a disciplined M&A threshold (minimum ~20% unlevered IRR), and the aim to maintain conservative leverage while executing product and investment initiatives.Afya Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
88
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
72
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.84B | 3.62B | 3.30B | 2.88B | 2.33B | 1.72B |
| Gross Profit | 2.46B | 2.34B | 2.09B | 1.77B | 1.47B | 1.07B |
| EBITDA | 1.64B | 1.34B | 1.22B | 1.11B | 929.03M | 603.33M |
| Net Income | 784.56M | 737.68M | 631.51M | 386.32M | 373.57M | 223.33M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 9.31B | 9.35B | 8.83B | 7.58B | 7.20B | 6.45B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.00B | 1.12B | 911.01M | 553.03M | 1.09B | 748.56M |
| Total Debt | 3.11B | 3.12B | 3.17B | 2.68B | 2.71B | 2.16B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.39B | 4.46B | 4.52B | 3.94B | 3.95B | 3.45B |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.88B | 4.85B | 4.27B | 3.60B | 3.20B | 2.95B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.16B | 1.04B | 1.04B | 798.20M | 546.88M | 354.07M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.32B | 1.20B | 1.43B | 1.04B | 843.90M | 630.87M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -488.25M | -498.11M | -1.09B | -1.14B | -591.47M | -1.27B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -926.54M | -489.20M | 23.97M | -439.94M | 92.94M | 364.68M |
Afya Technical Analysis
Positive
14.35
Price Trends
14.20
Positive
14.34
Negative
14.18
Positive
Market Momentum
0.04
Negative
54.93
Neutral
84.97
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AFYA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 14.35 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 13.93, above the 50-day MA of 14.20, and above the 200-day MA of 14.18, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 54.93 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 84.97 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AFYA.
Afya Risk Analysis
Afya disclosed 69 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Afya reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Afya Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $1.91B | 13.87 | 8.19% | 3.17% | 3.53% | 23.97% | |
77 Outperform | $1.31B | 8.50 | 16.38% | 4.72% | 16.99% | 23.72% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
59 Neutral | $1.64B | -8.51 | -17.74% | ― | 22.69% | -112.56% | |
55 Neutral | $1.97B | 83.42 | -8.24% | ― | 10.03% | -27.61% | |
46 Neutral | $1.24B | 35.23 | 10.17% | ― | 9.15% | -46.11% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
AFYA
Afya
14.31
-0.31
-2.14%
STRA
Strategic Education
85.58
6.47
8.18%
UTI
Universal Technical Institute
21.62
-5.27
-19.60%
DAO
Youdao
16.44
7.51
84.10%
COUR
Coursera
6.39
-5.22
-44.96%
Afya Corporate Events
Afya Posts Solid First-Half 2026 Results and Returns R$448 Million to Shareholders
Aug 13, 2026
On August 13, 2026, Afya reported its second-quarter and first-half 2026 results, showing steady top-line growth but some margin pressure as it advanced its investment cycle. Second-quarter revenue rose 5.7% year on year to R$972.1 million and adj...
Afya Posts Higher First-Half 2026 Profit on Revenue Growth in Brazil
Aug 13, 2026
Afya Limited has filed unaudited interim condensed consolidated financial statements for the period ended June 30, 2026, showing stable assets of R$9.33 billion and total equity of R$4.93 billion, slightly higher than at year-end 2025. The filing,...
Afya Names Marcelo Ken Suhara Chair of Audit, Risks and Ethics Committee After Board Member’s Passing
Jul 30, 2026
Afya Limited, Brazil’s leading medical education group and provider of medical practice solutions, reported a governance change following the July 27, 2026 appointment of board member Marcelo Ken Suhara as chair of its Audit, Risks and Ethic...
Afya Shareholders Approve 2025 Financial Statements at June 22 AGM
Jun 22, 2026
Afya Limited, a Brazilian medical education leader with a physician-centric ecosystem spanning undergraduate, residency prep, graduate, and continuing medical education, as well as practice-enhancing solutions, continues to expand its presence in ...
Afya Sets June 22, 2026 AGM to Ratify 2025 Financial Results
Jun 2, 2026
Afya Limited has called its 2026 Annual General Meeting for June 22, 2026, to be held in Belo Horizonte and virtually, with shareholders asked to approve and ratify the company’s financial statements and auditor’s report for the fiscal...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.