NCR Atleos, LLC AI Stock Analysis
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NCR Atleos, LLC (NATL) AI Stock Analysis
NCR Atleos, LLC
(NYSE:NATL)
The score is driven primarily by mixed financial performance: strong cash generation and improved margins are offset by an extreme TTM revenue contraction and a historically aggressive leverage profile. Technicals are mildly supportive with the stock holding above major moving averages and positive MACD, while valuation is fair (P/E ~17.7) but lacks dividend support.
NCR Atleos, LLC (NATL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
- Market Cap
- $3.56B
- Dividend Yield
- ―
- Average Volume (3M)
- 787.39K
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- 13.3
- Beta (1Y)
- 0.81
- Revenue Growth
- 2.23%
- EPS Growth
- 115.16%
- Country
- US
- Employees
- 20,000
- Sector
- Technology
- Sector Strength
- 61
- Industry
- Software - Application
NCR Atleos, LLC Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
NCR Atleos Corporation operates as a prominent financial technology firm, specializing in delivering self-service financial solutions. The company serves a diverse global clientele, encompassing financial institutions, merchants, manufacturers, retai...
How the Company Makes Money
NCR Atleos makes money primarily by operating and servicing ATM and cash-access infrastructure for customers and earning recurring fees tied to those services. Key revenue streams include: (1) Managed/outsourced ATM services for banks and credit unio...
NCR Atleos, LLC Earnings Call Summary
The earnings call highlights significant achievements in financial performance, segment growth, and strategic initiatives, despite facing challenges such as tariffs and a decline in prepaid payroll card transactions.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Negative Updates
Company Guidance
During the NCR Atleos Q3 2025 earnings call, guidance emphasized maintaining consistent financial performance and capital allocation to ensure growth. The company has achieved a targeted leverage level of 3x and aims to reduce it to about 2.8x by year-end. Although share repurchases were restricted in Q3, they plan to commence in the upcoming trading window. Atleos reported a 6% core top-line growth, driven by a 24% increase in hardware revenue and a 37% growth in ATM-as-a-Service. Profitability was at the high end of expectations, with EBITDA margins expanding by 40 basis points to 19.5%. The self-service banking segment saw an 11% revenue increase, with significant profit growth and margins up 220 basis points. The company anticipates substantial free cash flow conversion improvement in 2026, approaching 35% of adjusted EBITDA. For the network segment, revenue was down 1% due to lower payroll card transactions, but the overall rolling 12-month ARPU increased slightly. Atleos reaffirmed its 2025 guidance, expecting free cash flow conversion to exceed 30% and adjusted EBITDA to hit the lower end of the guided range.
NCR Atleos, LLC Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Mixed fundamentals: profitability and margins improved (EBIT margin ~11.4%, EBITDA margin ~17.7%) and cash flow is solid (TTM OCF ~$441M, FCF ~$273M), but the sharp TTM revenue decline (~-49.8%) and a historically highly leveraged balance sheet (debt-to-equity ~7–12x in 2023–2025 with thin equity) materially raise risk.
Income Statement
58NeutralBalance Sheet
34NegativeCash Flow
67Positive| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 4.40B | 4.35B | 4.32B | 4.19B | 4.13B | 3.55B |
| Gross Profit | 1.13B | 1.06B | 1.03B | 933.00M | 919.00M | 892.00M |
| EBITDA | 873.00M | 736.00M | 735.00M | 451.00M | 447.00M | 459.00M |
| Net Income | 267.00M | 162.00M | 91.00M | -134.00M | 108.00M | 186.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 5.51B | 5.67B | 5.55B | 5.74B | 5.77B | 5.58B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 311.00M | 456.00M | 419.00M | 339.00M | 293.00M | 238.00M |
| Total Debt | 2.70B | 2.90B | 3.05B | 3.12B | 884.00M | 1.46B |
| Total Liabilities | 4.94B | 5.27B | 5.29B | 5.45B | 2.51B | 3.24B |
| Stockholders Equity | 564.00M | 403.00M | 260.00M | 284.00M | 3.26B | 2.33B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 273.00M | 239.00M | 205.00M | 223.00M | 177.00M | 338.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 441.00M | 356.00M | 344.00M | 355.00M | 274.00M | 449.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -155.00M | -116.00M | -135.00M | -316.00M | -417.00M | -2.49B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -429.00M | -253.00M | -134.00M | 31.00M | 183.00M | 2.35B |
NCR Atleos, LLC Technical Analysis
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NATL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 48.20 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 46.74, above the 50-day MA of 46.18, and above the 200-day MA of 44.82, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.49 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.13 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 85.51 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NATL.
NCR Atleos, LLC Risk Analysis
NCR Atleos, LLC disclosed 52 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. NCR Atleos, LLC reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Latest Risks Added
3 New RisksNCR Atleos, LLC Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
QTWO81Outperform
AGYS77Outperform
PAR59Neutral
ALKT58Neutral- NATL56Neutral
DBD54Neutral
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QTWO | 81Outperform | $4.65B | 41.89 | 17.11% | ― | 13.08% | 246.41% |
| AGYS | 77Outperform | $3.50B | 78.13 | 13.28% | ― | 14.86% | 80.45% |
| Sector * | 61Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% |
| PAR | 59Neutral | $922.57M | -14.45 | -7.69% | ― | 16.83% | 31.74% |
| ALKT | 58Neutral | $1.52B | -40.17 | -10.19% | ― | 24.04% | 17.99% |
| NATL | 56Neutral | $3.56B | 13.31 | 58.46% | ― | 2.23% | 115.16% |
| DBD | 54Neutral | $1.93B | 26.16 | 7.62% | ― | 6.25% | 57.31% |
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NATL | NCR Atleos, LLC | 48.20 | 11.63 | 31.80% | |
| AGYS | Agilysys, Inc. | 123.45 | -2.03 | -1.62% | |
| PAR | Par Technology | 22.26 | -16.82 | -43.04% | |
| QTWO | Q2 Holdings | 74.14 | 2.42 | 3.37% | |
| ALKT | Alkami Technology Inc | 14.06 | -6.01 | -29.95% | |
| DBD | Diebold Nixdorf Inc | 57.04 | -8.25 | -12.64% |
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
Date of analysis: Nov 04, 2026