We have been extremely careful in our notes about structural changes in the labour market and have never suggested labour markets are not cyclical. We discuss this further in Recruiting & Labour markets: When a new paradigm meets old realities (02 October 2023). In recent months, there has been a slowing of growth and contraction in some of the traditional leading indicators of the labour market, more so in perm than temp. The question is whether demand will stabilise at levels above 2019, with churn picking up, or whether demand softens further, driving a more normal contraction in the labour market. At Hays, the additional question is whether the group can fill its own Managed Service Program (MSP) vacancies – the upside potential to profit growth is significant if it does, but if not, profit growth will be subdued.