Want to see EARN full AI Analyst Report?
Ellington Residential Mortgage (EARN) AI Stock Analysis
Ellington Residential Mortgage
(NYSE:EARN)
EARN scores in the mid-range primarily due to unstable profitability (recent net loss) and only moderate balance-sheet strength despite improved leverage, partially offset by very strong but potentially non-recurring cash flow. Technicals are neutral-to-weak with the stock below longer-term moving averages and negative MACD. Positives include a very high dividend yield and a constructive earnings-call outlook pointing to improving NII and portfolio yields, with supportive (though mixed) capital actions such as buybacks alongside an ATM facility.
Ellington Residential Mortgage (EARN) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
- Market Cap
- $127.87M
- Dividend Yield
- 28.66%
- Average Volume (3M)
- 418.02K
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- -3.5
- Beta (1Y)
- 0.85
- Revenue Growth
- ―
- EPS Growth
- ―
- Country
- US
- Employees
- 150
- Sector
- Financial
- Sector Strength
- 68
- Industry
- Asset Management
Ellington Residential Mortgage Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Ellington Residential Mortgage REIT functions as a real estate investment trust (REIT), with its core business focused on the acquisition, investment, and oversight of assets tied to residential mortgages and real estate. The company's holdings prima...
How the Company Makes Money
EARN’s earnings are primarily driven by net interest income and investment gains from its mortgage portfolio, typically using leverage to enhance returns. Key revenue/earnings drivers: 1) Net interest income (carry): The core engine is the spread bet...
Ellington Residential Mortgage Earnings Call Summary
The call was strongly positive. Management reported an 8.1% quarterly economic return, higher NAV, portfolio growth, reduced leverage, improved projected yields, strong July results, and an active pipeline of opportunities to increase NII. The main challenges were that second-quarter NII had not yet fully reflected the repositioned portfolio, hedge losses offset part of the gains, the new-issue CLO equity market remained unattractive, and management was more cautious at tighter market levels.
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Negative Updates
Company Guidance
Management said it expects to grow net investment income in the months ahead by deploying excess liquidity, prudently adding leverage, and rotating capital into higher yielding investments, with significant upside as it deploys remaining balance sheet capacity. Adjusted NII for July was approximately $0.06 per share, a monthly run rate about 20% higher than the second quarter figure, while July economic return was approximately 3.1%, or $0.13 per share, covering the $0.08 monthly distribution and increasing NAV per share by approximately $0.05. Management said it sees “getting into the low 20s” on adjusted NII “over the next couple of quarters,” expects the portfolio could grow another 5%, 10% from the June 30 numbers, and said debt to equity could get back closer to 1.43 at March 31 from 1.29 at June 30.
Ellington Residential Mortgage Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Mixed fundamentals: 2025 swung to a net loss (-$14.5M) and negative EBIT (-$8.4M) despite revenue growth, indicating unstable earnings power. Balance-sheet leverage improved (debt-to-equity down to 1.43) but ROE turned negative and assets shrank sharply, reducing cushion. Cash flow was exceptionally strong in 2025 (OCF/FCF $540.7M), but the mismatch versus net loss suggests volatility and potential non-recurring drivers.
Income Statement
34NegativeBalance Sheet
49NeutralCash Flow
58Neutral| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 53.91M | 42.57M | 50.67M | 55.35M | -10.25M | 2.17M |
| Gross Profit | 53.91M | 36.36M | 15.88M | 10.09M | -25.07M | -557.00K |
| EBITDA | -27.14M | -8.44M | 7.10M | 4.56M | -27.91M | -6.31M |
| Net Income | -36.74M | -14.45M | 6.59M | 4.56M | -30.20M | -6.31M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 382.54M | 386.93M | 824.09M | 945.69M | 1.05B | 1.60B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 23.47M | 57.73M | 31.84M | 38.53M | 34.82M | 69.03M |
| Total Debt | 205.94M | 220.27M | 562.97M | 729.54M | 842.46M | 1.06B |
| Total Liabilities | 222.83M | 233.10M | 630.37M | 809.45M | 941.22M | 1.44B |
| Stockholders Equity | 159.71M | 153.82M | 193.73M | 136.24M | 112.41M | 154.22M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 182.05M | 540.72M | 9.11M | -10.02M | 22.42M | 27.88M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 182.05M | 540.72M | 9.11M | -10.02M | 22.42M | 27.88M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 0 | 344.70M | 116.45M | 85.72M | 110.55M | -15.23M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -180.70M | -339.70M | -132.25M | -71.98M | -167.18M | -1.79M |
Ellington Residential Mortgage Technical Analysis
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For EARN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.35 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.43, below the 50-day MA of 3.81, and below the 200-day MA of 4.09, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.09 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 37.46 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 8.54 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for EARN.
Ellington Residential Mortgage Risk Analysis
Ellington Residential Mortgage disclosed 108 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Ellington Residential Mortgage reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Latest Risks Added
3 New RisksEllington Residential Mortgage Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
TPVG69Neutral
PNNT64Neutral- EARN57Neutral
SCM49Neutral
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TPVG | 69Neutral | $187.26M | 4.54 | 10.97% | 22.22% | 12.61% | -3.62% |
| Sector * | 68Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% |
| PNNT | 64Neutral | $202.42M | 19.57 | 2.27% | 31.07% | 138.32% | -27.91% |
| EARN | 57Neutral | $127.87M | -3.45 | -21.22% | 28.66% | ― | ― |
| SCM | 49Neutral | $204.49M | 6.93 | 8.05% | 17.97% | 0.37% | -28.29% |
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EARN | Ellington Residential Mortgage | 3.35 | -0.81 | -19.37% | |
| PNNT | Pennantpark Investment | 3.09 | -2.09 | -40.38% | |
| SCM | Stellus Capital Investment | 7.12 | -3.15 | -30.64% | |
| TPVG | TriplePoint Venture Growth | 4.50 | -0.26 | -5.44% | |
| NXDT | NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust | 3.78 | 1.23 | 48.18% |
Ellington Residential Mortgage Corporate Events
Ellington Residential Mortgage Launches $125 Million ATM Offering
PositiveOn October 23, 2026, Ellington Credit Company entered into an equity distribution agreement with a syndicate of securities firms that will act as agents or principals for an at-the-market offering of up to $125 million of its common shares. The share...
Ellington Residential Mortgage Announces Share Repurchase Authorization
PositiveOn October 9, 2026, Ellington Credit Company’s Board of Trustees authorized a common share repurchase program of up to $20 million, allowing the fund to buy back its outstanding shares in the open market through October 9, 2027, subject to its...
Ellington Residential Mortgage Declares Monthly Common Distribution
PositiveOn October 7, 2026, Ellington Credit Company announced that its Board of Trustees declared a monthly common distribution of $0.08 per share, reinforcing its income-focused strategy in the corporate CLO market. The distribution is scheduled to be paid...
Ellington Residential Mortgage Maintains Monthly Dividend Distribution
PositiveOn September 8, 2026, Ellington Credit Company announced that its Board of Trustees declared a monthly common distribution of $0.08 per share, set to be paid on October 30, 2026 to shareholders of record as of September 30, 2026. The move underscores...
Ellington Residential Mortgage Reports Strong First-Quarter Results
PositiveFor the first fiscal quarter ended June 30, 2026, Ellington Credit Company reported GAAP net income of $12.3 million, or $0.33 per share, and net investment income of $6.1 million, or $0.16 per share, with a net asset value of $4.18 per share after $...
Ellington Residential Declares Monthly Common Share Distribution
PositiveOn August 10, 2026, Ellington Credit Company announced that its Board of Trustees had declared a monthly common distribution of $0.08 per share. The payout is scheduled for September 30, 2026 to common shareholders of record as of August 31, 2026, re...
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
Date of analysis: Oct 27, 2026