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CSX
(NASDAQ:CSX)
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Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
$58.00
â–²(12.60% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:10/23/26
CSX’s score is driven primarily by solid underlying financial quality (strong margins) but tempered by weaker recent free-cash-flow trends and meaningful leverage. The strongly positive earnings call and raised revenue outlook materially support the score, while technicals are constructive with the stock trading above key moving averages. Valuation is a modest drag given the ~25 P/E and relatively low dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Strong profitability
CSX retains substantial profitability despite a softer growth profile, providing an earnings cushion across its high-fixed-cost rail network. Strong margins can support reinvestment, service improvements, and productivity programs while helping the company absorb moderate volume or cost pressure.
Negative Factors
Meaningful leverage
Elevated leverage reduces financial flexibility compared with a less indebted balance sheet and makes earnings more sensitive to economic weakness or higher interest costs. It may also constrain the pace of discretionary investment, shareholder returns, or responses to unexpected operating pressures.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong profitability
CSX retains substantial profitability despite a softer growth profile, providing an earnings cushion across its high-fixed-cost rail network. Strong margins can support reinvestment, service improvements, and productivity programs while helping the company absorb moderate volume or cost pressure.
Read all positive factors
CSX Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Highlights revenue from different business segments, showing which areas drive growth and profitability, and indicating strategic focus or potential vulnerabilities.
Highlights revenue from different business segments, showing which areas drive growth and profitability, and indicating strategic focus or potential vulnerabilities.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyCSX (CSX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$93.63B
Dividend Yield1.08%
Average Volume (3M)10.68M
Price to Earnings (P/E)26.3
Beta (1Y)0.65
Revenue Growth5.80%
EPS Growth25.25%
CountryUS
Employees21,900
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryRailroads
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.93
Shares Outstanding1,843,398,200
10 Day Avg. Volume11,071,688
30 Day Avg. Volume10,683,722
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.69
Price to Book (P/B)5.13
Price to Sales (P/S)4.79
P/FCF Ratio39.49
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.11
Enterprise Value/Revenue6.95
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit19.10
Enterprise Value/Ebitda14.48
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$53.27Price Target Upside3.41% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering15
EPS Forecast (FY)2.01
Revenue Forecast (FY)$15.30B
CSX Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
CSX Corporation, operating through its subsidiaries, stands as a leading provider of rail-based cargo transportation services. The company offers a wide range of services, including general rail freight, the movement of intermodal containers and t...
How the Company Makes Money
CSX makes money primarily by charging customers to transport freight by rail across its network. Revenue is generated from freight service contracts and tariffs, typically priced based on factors such as shipment lane (origin-destination), distanc...
CSX Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Oct 21, 2026
(Q3-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jan 27, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was strongly positive. CSX reported double-digit revenue growth, 30% EPS growth, substantial margin expansion, record fuel efficiency, improved safety, record intermodal volume, and raised revenue guidance. Management also highlighted continued productivity initiatives, capacity investments, and growth opportunities. The main challenges were fertilizer and domestic coal weakness, temporary Atlanta service tightness, seasonal fourth-quarter cost pressure, fuel volatility, driver shortages, and a smaller expected productivity contribution in 2027, but these issues were presented alongside active mitigation efforts and an overall confident outlook.Positive Updates
Strong Earnings and Margin Expansion
Third-quarter earnings per share increased 30% year over year to $0.57. Adjusted operating income increased 25%, while operating margin improved to 39.1%, up 420 basis points from last year's adjusted result.
Negative Updates
Intermodal Trip Plan Compliance Declined
Although several service metrics improved sequentially, intermodal trip plan compliance declined quarter over quarter.
Read all updates
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Earnings and Margin Expansion
Third-quarter earnings per share increased 30% year over year to $0.57. Adjusted operating income increased 25%, while operating margin improved to 39.1%, up 420 basis points from last year's adjusted result.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For 2026, CSX now expects revenue growth in the high single digits, compared to the mid to high single digit range provided previously; the rest of its guidance is unchanged, including full year operating margin expansion of more than 350 basis points, capital expenditures below $2.4 billion, and free cash flow growth of more than 80%. For the fourth quarter, CSX expects year over year margin improvement above 300-- 350 points, normal seasonal increases in PS&O and some step up sequentially in the fourth quarter expense line, while coal RPU is expected to increase another small sequential amount; service started strong in October, with velocity averaging more than 19 mph this month and dwell approaching 10 hours. The company has a little over 100 initiatives contributing to its 2027 productivity target, which is expected to be a significant number next year, though 2027 will not be as big as 2026, and other revenue is expected to be around the mid-$130s per quarter, with the fourth quarter probably a little better than that.CSX Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
67
Positive
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 14.94B | 14.09B | 14.54B | 14.66B | 14.85B | 12.52B |
| Gross Profit | 5.44B | 4.68B | 5.51B | 5.60B | 5.72B | 5.29B |
| EBITDA | 7.17B | 6.27B | 7.04B | 7.25B | 7.59B | 7.09B |
| Net Income | 3.58B | 2.89B | 3.47B | 3.67B | 4.11B | 3.78B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 45.15B | 43.68B | 42.76B | 42.21B | 41.91B | 40.53B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.60B | 675.00M | 1.00B | 1.44B | 2.09B | 2.32B |
| Total Debt | 19.30B | 19.35B | 18.99B | 19.02B | 18.54B | 16.84B |
| Total Liabilities | 30.77B | 30.52B | 30.26B | 30.23B | 29.29B | 27.03B |
| Stockholders Equity | 14.38B | 13.16B | 12.50B | 11.98B | 12.63B | 13.50B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 3.21B | 1.71B | 2.72B | 3.26B | 3.49B | 3.31B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 5.60B | 4.61B | 5.25B | 5.51B | 5.62B | 5.10B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.61B | -2.85B | -2.60B | -2.23B | -2.13B | -1.88B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.38B | -2.02B | -3.06B | -3.87B | -3.77B | -4.11B |
CSX Technical Analysis
Positive
51.51
Price Trends
48.69
Positive
48.73
Positive
45.01
Positive
Market Momentum
0.47
Negative
65.54
Neutral
76.45
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For CSX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 51.51 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 47.92, above the 50-day MA of 48.69, and above the 200-day MA of 45.01, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.47 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.54 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 76.45 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for CSX.
CSX Risk Analysis
CSX disclosed 19 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. CSX reported the most risks in the "Legal & Regulatory" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
CSX Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $37.88B | 35.13 | 24.87% | 0.63% | -0.64% | 1.47% | |
75 Outperform | $174.04B | 22.79 | 37.82% | 1.90% | 7.40% | 8.86% | |
74 Outperform | $93.63B | 26.32 | 25.95% | 1.08% | 5.80% | 25.25% | |
71 Outperform | $74.12B | 27.64 | 16.69% | 1.64% | 5.99% | -9.02% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
62 Neutral | $16.30B | 26.59 | 36.01% | 1.79% | -0.09% | 19.50% | |
61 Neutral | $21.23B | 31.75 | 18.71% | 0.79% | 10.59% | 23.25% |
* Industrials Sector Average
CSX
CSX
50.79
15.25
42.90%
CHRW
CH Robinson
141.17
14.05
11.05%
JBHT
JB Hunt
226.03
59.62
35.83%
NSC
Norfolk Southern
329.99
53.23
19.23%
ODFL
Old Dominion Freight
182.70
46.82
34.45%
UNP
Union Pacific
292.87
79.15
37.03%
CSX Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
CSX Announces Retirement of Chief Operating Officer Cory
Neutral
Oct 13, 2026
On October 12, 2026, CSX announced that Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer Mike Cory retired from the company and stepped down from his COO role effective that day. To support a smooth handover, Cory will continue providing trans...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.