Former President Donald Trump’s threat to impose a 100% tariff on all Chinese imports starting Nov. 1 is unlikely to happen, according to a new note from Nomura (NMR). The firm pointed to recent comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, both of whom signaled that a trade truce remains more probable.
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Analysts Question Sustainability
Nomura also flagged the threat as unsustainable. China’s ongoing export controls on rare-earth minerals and reduced U.S. soybean purchases already pose risks to key U.S. industries, including manufacturing and agriculture. Adding further tariffs could escalate those vulnerabilities.
Truce Pattern Repeats
The analysts noted that a similar tariff threat emerged in April before both sides reached a temporary agreement in May. They said the latest move follows the same pattern and is likely aimed at domestic messaging rather than immediate policy change.
With both sides showing signs of caution and past patterns pointing to compromise, analysts expect the proposed tariff hike to fade quietly, especially as economic pressure mounts on U.S. manufacturers and farmers.
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