Momentum in quantum computing stocks throughout this Autumn has remained fiery. A friendlier cost of capital after the Fed’s September cut has put long-duration tech back in play, and traders are leaning into anything with optionality. Then we have headlines that Washington is exploring equity stakes in quantum firms, which adds high-octane fuel. And to be fair, in the mix, there are new technical milestones and fresh government touchpoints that give the quantum story some teeth.
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The three prime contenders to the quantum stock throne are IonQ (IONQ), who build trapped-ion systems; Rigetti Computing (RGTI), specializing in superconducting and full-stack; and D-Wave Quantum (QBTS), which sells annealers and is scaling its public-sector channels. Overall, I’m excited by the potential, but remain wary enough to admit the rallies can look bubblish. On top of all that, given their stellar gains in 2025, I hold a Neutral stance on all three stocks.
IonQ (NYSE:IONQ)
Up roughly 255% year over year, IonQ has ridden a favorable mix of record-setting hardware news and an acquisition spree that recast its roadmap. Moreover, the company just claimed 99.99% two-qubit gate fidelity. If it can sustain this figure beyond the lab, it will meaningfully lower error-correction overhead. In the meantime, the U.K. approval of its Oxford Ionics purchase last month signals real regulatory progress on the M&A front. That combination of headline physics plus dealcraft explains the sentiment shift more than any single financial figure.
In the previous quarter (Q2), management’s comments leaned into scale. They also set the 2025 revenue guidance at $82–$100 million and a Q3 bar of $25–$29 million, while cautioning about heavier losses as the company invests. The company is expected to post its Q3 results on November 5, and I will be listening for evidence that Oxford Ionics and related integrations (and that “four-nines” claim) are actually translating into stickier customer workloads. Of course, speculation couldn’t be any higher, as the stock is trading at 229x this year’s expected sales and is not likely to be profitable anytime soon.
Is IONQ Stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell?
Analyst sentiment is quite bullish on IonQ at first glance, with the stock carrying a Strong Buy consensus rating, based on six Buy and two Hold ratings assigned over the past three months. No analyst rates the stock a Sell. However, IONQ’s average stock price target of $64.57 implies ~8% upside potential over the next twelve months, suggesting the stock may already be priced to perfection.
Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ:RGTI)
Rigetti’s recent rally has been nothing short of extraordinary — its share price has surged roughly 2,489% year over year, a move that almost defies belief. Beneath the surface, two key factors matter for the company: first, tangible system orders; and second, a $5.8 million AFRL contract to advance superconducting quantum networking in collaboration with QphoX.
Yes, that funding is modest, but it represents the kind of programmatic support that buys time to mature critical hardware. The stock’s momentum makes more sense when viewed as “option value on a manufacturing roadmap” rather than a revenue-growth story — at least for now — with Q3 revenue expected to come in at just $2.17 million.
To keep that momentum credible, Rigetti must show durability after a choppy first half, as management flagged funding delays that hit sales and margins. With Q3 expected around November 13, I’ll be focused on progress turning pilot work into multi-year contracts and updated timelines on Ankaa-class upgrades. Also, how much of that order book is repeat spend versus one-offs will be essential to know. In the meantime, because there’s a lack of meaningful revenue—or profits, for that matter—coming in, a fair valuation for Rigetti is anyone’s guess.
Is Rigetti Stock a Good Buy?
On Wall Street, RGTI stock features a Strong Buy consensus rating, based on six unanimous Buy ratings, despite the stock’s mythical rally over the past year. Nevertheless, RGTI’s average stock price target of $30.25 implies 22% downside potential over the next 12 months, suggesting Wall Street analysts might need to either update their ratings or their price targets.
D-Wave Quantum (NYSE:QBTS)
If Rigetti’s rally is remarkable, wait until you learn that D-Wave’s stock price has risen 2,820% since this time last year. The narrative behind the stock is simple: D-Wave sells annealing systems that solve particular optimization problems, and it’s been busy making it easier for the public to buy. The Carahsoft distribution partnership opened familiar procurement channels (SEWP V, ITES-SW2). Add a South Korea push with Yonsei University and Incheon, and D-Wave now has tangible prospects outside North America, too.
Earnings-wise, D-Wave’s numbers are still at irrelevant levels. The company’s Q3 results are scheduled for November 6, and Wall Street expects revenue of about $3 million. This trade is more about the story. Investors may want to look out for the following in next week’s quarterly report: the conversion of MOUs into POs (Yonsei/Jülich-style wins) and clearer bridges between annealing customers today and the company’s longer-term gate-model ambitions. Another key factor is discipline around dilution after the 2025 run-up. The last point is crucial because without revenue, the company is essentially set to keep losing money for quite some time.
Is D-Wave a Buy, Hold, or Sell?
D-Wave is now covered by 10 Wall Street analysts, and sentiment is extremely bullish here, too. The stock carries a Strong Buy consensus with all 10 analysts assigning a Buy rating. No analyst rates the stock a Hold or a Sell. Yet, just like Rigetti, QBTS’s average stock price target of $27 indicates ~20% downside potential over the next twelve months. The stock might have therefore already run ahead of itself.
Excited but Cautious on Quantum
Quantum stocks are shining lately — fueled by cheaper capital, supportive policy momentum, and genuine technical progress — and I’ll admit, I’m optimistic. Still, these remain highly speculative plays. Most are pre-revenue companies expected to post losses for years while trading at valuations that stretch imagination. Caution is essential when trading in this space.
Heading into earnings, keep an eye on IonQ as it transitions fidelity gains from the lab to real-world workloads, Rigetti as it converts pilot programs into tangible contracts, and D-Wave as it works to turn MOUs into revenue while managing dilution risk.