Investors keeping an eye on their tickers may have noticed a strange blip over the past nine months. New-age nuclear-power provider Oklo (OKLO) has proved to be one of the most topsy-turvy stocks on Wall Street this year. In January, the stock was trading under $20 per share, but after some impromptu partnership deals and timely political posturing, the stock experienced a surge in bullish sentiment, reaching an all-time high of $144 per share last week.
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However, OKLO finished last Friday’s session at $110.53, with this week’s price action expected to be just as turbulent. According to chart data, the stock undergoes ~10% price swings on a regular basis, while carving out an uptrend despite the volatility. Notably for investors, volatility has climbed in step with the rally, with the Average True Range (ATR) doubling from 5 to 10 over the past two weeks.
Revolutionizing Nuclear Energy
Oklo’s success centers on its next-gen nuclear technology, which turns the big task of power generation into “modular” small steps. Its quirky “power-as-a-service” revenue model has yet to take flight, but it makes sense on paper. The nuclear start-up hopes its breakthrough capacity to recycle spent nuclear fuel will serve as a transformative step towards turning waste into opportunity.
Instead of massive traditional reactors, Oklo develops compact, small modular reactors (SMRs) designed to run for years without refueling, while delivering efficient and sustainable power. The company claims that its use of advanced metallic uranium fuel provides a cleaner and more effective energy source. With global demand rising for AI infrastructure, data centers, and renewable energy solutions, Oklo’s approach positions it as a timely response to a pressing energy bottleneck.
OKLO’s Vintage Year So Far
In May, the stock made headlines after a one-day rise of 35% following an executive order issued by President Trump. The order, similar to other initiatives since being elected President, prioritizes the development of domestic reactors and increasing uranium production to further U.S. energy independence in the wars to come. The emphasis on more cost-effective and scalable SMRs aligns closely with Oklo’s “powerhouse” plans.
OKLO broke ground on its “first Aurora Powerhouse,” as part of the U.S. Department of Energy’s newly established Reactor Pilot Program, earlier this month. At the ceremony, OKLO’s executives were flanked by a platoon of U.S. government officials, keen to send out the message that scalable nuclear power will keep America at the forefront of the “global AI arms race.”
It would seem that OKLO is walking the same path as Palantir (PLTR), whereby, in the interests of national security, uniquely positioned companies can rise from the bottom to the top of the food chain in a matter of months.
Does OKLO Have a Future?
Despite the nuclear-powered levels of good cheer for the stock, investors should recognize that OKLO remains pre-revenue, with so-called “monetization” penciled in only for mid-late 2027. The company is spearheading big industrial ideas, but the scale takes time. Whether early investors will have the patience is unclear.
Regulatory uncertainty and potential timeline slippage are also notable risks that have seemingly been overlooked by giddy early investors. Moreover, as seasoned investors will know, jumping into advanced spearheading technology stocks with blue-sky potential often means overshooting expectations and the stock being so tightly priced that even a minor letdown leads to steep declines.
Ultimately, only the brave of heart can consider OKLO at current levels. The company’s ability to deliver on its ambitious targets is the key, but given the amount of speculative longs currently in the stock, expect a volatile ride for the foreseeable future.
For investors like OpenAI’s Sam Altman, backing OKLO makes complete sense. For the average stock investor? Investing in OKLO will feel like a rollercoaster ride with stellar returns, in the best-case scenario. In the worst-case scenario, OKLO fails to deliver on its power play, and all those expectant longs unravel into the night. In such a scenario, giddy bulls may see their positions unravel far faster than it took for the stock to climb to its highs.