Why Is XRP Still Down Despite Its Biggest 2025 Catalyst?

XRP (XRP-USD) is not taking off even though speculators are bracing for what could be its biggest catalyst this year—an official U.S. ETF approval. The token is stuck around $2.26 this week, and the longer it stalls, the more traders are losing patience. The SEC has yet again kicked the can down the road, delaying decisions on multiple spot XRP ETF applications, including filings by Franklin Templeton and 21Shares.

Polymarket—an Ethereum-based prediction market—now shows a 93% chance that an XRP ETF gets approved by December 2025. But in the real world? Nothing yet. And time is ticking.

XRP Tests Patience as Traders Watch Narrow June Window

Traders are now on focused a very specific time frame: June 4 through June 6. Analyst Egrag Crypto told FingerLakes1 this week, “The next few days are not just important — they could define XRP’s trajectory for the next several months.” That kind of urgency has traders on edge.

Technically, XRP is clinging to a fragile support range. If it breaks below, analysts warn a drop toward $1.70 could follow. If it holds, the rally might finally take off. So far, it’s just hovering.

Institutions Back XRP while Retail Remains Lukewarm

Still, behind the scenes, big players are making moves. VivoPower recently revealed it added $100 million worth of XRP to its corporate treasury. That’s a loud vote of confidence.

Meanwhile, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse shot down rumors of a buyout of Circle, confirming in media comments that “there is no acquisition happening,” which helped clear the air.

In short, XRP is stuck between two powerful forces: strong institutional interest and technical resistance that just won’t budge. The ETF excitement hasn’t been enough to push it over the edge. If it doesn’t break above $2.50 soon, the fear is it could slip fast.

At the time of writing, XRP is sitting at $2.2569.