It may surprise you to note, particularly if you do not live in Canada, but today is their Election Day. The Canadians are trying to get a new Prime Minister settled after the last one left amid growing concern. Now, with Pierre Poilievre and Mark Carney squaring off, there is a revived call for secession from Alberta. The result? Oddly positive for the iShares S&P / TSX 60 Index ETF (TSE:XIU), which notched up fractionally in Monday morning’s trading.
The latest outcry is proving to be somewhat conditional, reports note. With a clearly ideological battle shaping up between a conservative described as at least somewhat Trump-esque, a “tame populist,” and a liberal that seems to promise More of the Same and Plenty of It, the mood in Alberta seems to be growing increasingly unsettled, if the liberal wins.
One recent piece penned for the Globe and Mail, from an Alberta, noted that “…large numbers of Westerners simply will not stand for another four years of Liberal government, no matter who leads it.” There is even a term used to describe such a position: “western alienation.” And with the very name Trudeau—both father and son, at last report—considered a “dirty word” in the area for decades, it is small surprise that Mark Carney was recently spotted campaigning in the region in a bid to win hearts and minds, and get Alberta back to being properly Canadian again.
Saskatchewan Next?
While the election may or may not see one part of Canada depart—and not necessarily to the United States, either, but rather potentially to being its own country—there are growing stirrings of unrest in another part of Canada: Saskatchewan. In many ways, Alberta and Saskatchewan are quite similar. They are both “western” parts of Canada, both rich in oil and natural gas resources, both somewhat sparsely populated, and both feeling that “western alienation” that Alberta itself is feeling.
In fact, some project that, should Alberta break away from Canada, Saskatchewan will follow within a year. That is strictly speculative, of course, but it certainly does suggest that the “western alienation” concept runs fairly deep in the region.
Is the iShares S&P / TSX 60 Index ETF a Good Buy Right Now?
Turning to Wall Street, analysts have a Moderate Buy consensus rating on TSE:XIU shares based on 51 Buys, eight Holds and two Sells assigned in the past three months, as indicated by the graphic below. After a 16.11% rally in its share price over the past year, the average TSE:XIU price target of $42.97 per share implies 13.92% upside potential.
