As the economy shows signs of slowing down, some believe that a recession is just around the corner. Banking giant JPMorgan (JPM) is on that list, if only provisionally. In fact, it just offered up new odds on whether a recession will arrive in 2024. Investors, meanwhile, liked those odds, and JPMorgan shares were up over 1.5% in Thursday afternoon’s trading. Now, according to JPMorgan, via chief economist Bruce Kasman, there’s a 35% chance the United States economy—or possibly the entire global economy—will go into a recession by the end of this year. This is up from the previously estimated 25% chance.
Interestingly, though, Kasman maintained the odds of a recession before 2025’s second half at 45%. This suggests that the short-term risks have increased.
Indeed, a combination of disappointing jobs reports and sudden, sharp plunges in markets have left investors wondering if the economic situation might be more perilous than some expected. In addition, there’s the matter of an upcoming election, which may have a fundamental impact on how the economy goes overall.
Growing Signs of Trouble
Undoubtedly, recent massive inflation has left Americans—and plenty of others—facing significant economic struggles. One particularly telling point demonstrated just how potentially disastrous the economy is looking right now: credit card figures.
Currently, the average American has a credit card debt of $6,329, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. That adds up to a whopping $1.14 trillion and represents a 4.8% increase as compared to this time last year.
While some look to the concept of “revenge spending” as the culprit—people buying things they weren’t “allowed” to buy back during the pandemic—it’s more likely a consequence of inflation. In fact, a CNET survey found that 16% of respondents back in June were turning to financing options for basic necessities like groceries.
What Is the Target Price for JPM Stock?
Turning to Wall Street, analysts have a Strong Buy consensus rating on JPM stock based on 15 Buys and five Holds assigned in the past three months, as indicated by the graphic below. After a 35.73% rally in its share price over the past year, the average JPM price target of $222.05 per share implies 9.17% upside potential.
