Upwork (UPWK) stock rallied about 8% on Tuesday (as of writing) after UBS upgraded its rating to Buy from Hold ahead of the online freelance marketplace’s third-quarter earnings scheduled for November 3. UBS analyst Joshua Chan, who maintained a $21 price target for UPWK, believes that the company’s inflection toward gross services volume (GSV) growth could support a more favorable view of its positioning and serve as a catalyst for the stock.
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Currently, Wall Street expects Upwork to report adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.29 for Q3 2025, in line with the prior-year quarter’s earnings. Meanwhile, revenue is expected to decline by 0.23% to $193.33 million.
UBS Turns Bullish on Upwork Stock
Chan stated that Upwork appears well-positioned to return to positive GSV growth over the next two quarters based on favorable web traffic data and an ongoing shift toward higher-value services. He believes that this inflection, after five quarters of declines, could act as a positive catalyst for UPWK stock and support his above-consensus 2026 EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) estimate.
Furthermore, Chan contends that Upwork’s improved free cash flow (FCF) is underappreciated. He expects the company to generate FCF of just under $200 million this year, reflecting notable improvement from $139 million in 2024 and $13 million in 2023.
The UBS analyst also noted that stronger FCF is enabling Upwork to repurchase shares and drive share count lower for the first time in its history as a public company, bolstering its high-teens ROIC (return on invested capital) profile. In fact, Chan expects higher margins and capital deployment to support a high-teens ROIC, up from 6% in 2023.
Is UPWK a Good Stock to Buy?
Heading into Q3 earnings, Wall Street has a Moderate Buy consensus rating on Upwork stock based on six Buys and three Holds. The average UPWK stock price target of $20.11 indicates 15.4% upside potential from current levels.
