Bitcoin escaped its reputation for weak September performance by closing the month in the green. Analysts now argue that October could mark the start of a major rally, with several indicators aligning to signal more upside.
Elevate Your Investing Strategy:
- Take advantage of TipRanks Premium at 55% off! Unlock powerful investing tools, advanced data, and expert analyst insights to help you invest with confidence.
Bitcoin Breaks ‘Rektember’ Pattern
Historically, September has been the weakest month for Bitcoin. Across more than a decade of data, the asset has averaged negative 3% returns during the period. Traders even dubbed it “Rektember” because of the consistent pain it delivered.
This year was different. Bitcoin ended September up 5% at $114,000, bouncing from lows near $108,000. It marked the third straight year that the month closed green, a rare streak that traders see as a strong sign heading into Q4.
Q4 Gains Tend to Follow Green Septembers
Past data shows that when Bitcoin closes September higher, the final quarter often produces explosive rallies. In 2024, BTC gained 48% in Q4. In 2023, it jumped 57%. The most dramatic case was 2013, when Q4 gains hit 480%.
On average, October through December delivers the strongest returns of any quarter, with a 78% gain across Bitcoin’s history. Traders believe that if this cycle repeats, Uptober could set the stage for the biggest move of the bull market.
Stablecoins Show Rising Buying Power
One of the clearest signs supporting that thesis comes from stablecoins. The Stablecoin Supply Ratio has declined, while its relative strength index fell to its lowest level in four months. Onchain provider CryptoQuant called the signal “buy territory.”
The last time the metric was this low, Bitcoin traded under $75,000 before rallying more than 60% to its all-time highs. Stablecoin liquidity has also expanded, with over 10 billion USDT minted in the past two months, providing fuel for new inflows.
Long-Term Holders Add to Stash
While traders look at charts, Bitcoin’s long-term holders are quietly accumulating. Wallets categorized as accumulation addresses now hold a record 298,000 BTC. Analysts view this as a sign of conviction and a cushion against sell pressure.
“These signals could shape Bitcoin’s next big move,” CryptoQuant wrote, pointing to the alignment of fresh buying power and strong long-term hands.
Market Metrics Suggest Local Bottom
Beyond September’s positive close, analysts argue that the late-month dip to $108,650 may have marked a local bottom. Swissblock highlighted its aggregated impulse signal, which tracks price structures across hundreds of digital assets.
The firm said the metric has reset to levels seen only three times since 2024. Each instance coincided with the end of panic selling and the start of a sustained recovery. “We are approaching that setup again,” Swissblock said.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is sitting at $116,627.92.
