TipRanks AI says Nvidia’s Stock “Isn’t Slowing Down, Even with $7B in China Headwinds”

Nvidia may be the MVP of the AI era, but Spark—the AI analyst at TipRanks—has run the numbers and come to its own conclusion.

Spark isn’t here to sugarcoat. The model gives Nvidia (NVDA) an Outperform rating with a 13.51% upside to its $158 price target. That target isn’t hype—it’s grounded in data: revenue outperformance, international pressure, and sustained dominance in key segments.

Data Center Dominance Fuels the Nvidia Stock Forecast

Nvidia’s core revenue driver? Not gaming. Not autos. It’s data centers. TipRanks’ KPI dashboard shows that Nvidia’s data center segment has exploded, doubling revenue year over year thanks to Blackwell architecture demand. Gaming, on the other hand, is still struggling with supply constraints. Professional visualization and automotive are improving, but remain niche.

Additionally, Nvidia didn’t just beat expectations—it crushed them. Spark flags the company’s $44.1 billion in revenue—$1.1 billion over guidance—as a bullish tailwind. Nvidia also posted 146% EPS growth, beating the Street by $700 million.

China Still Clouds the NVDA Picture

It’s not all momentum. Spark highlights Nvidia’s $4.5 billion H20 export charge and another $2.5 billion in lost Chinese sales due to U.S. restrictions. That’s a $7 billion question mark hanging over future quarters. The H20 pause cost Nvidia not just revenue, but also inventory efficiency.

Nvidia Is Still Leading the S&P by a Mile

Even with those headwinds, NVDA stock is up 27% over the past year, nearly doubling the S&P 500’s 14.3% return. Spark scores the stock a near-elite 85, calling out robust momentum, sticky partnerships with Meta (META) and Google (GOOGL), and a dominant position in AI infrastructure.

Is Nvidia a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

TipRanks shows a Strong Buy consensus from 40 analysts: 35 say Buy, four say Hold, and one calls it a Sell. The average NVDA price target is $172.43—a hefty 23.9% upside from current levels. Spark’s more conservative take reflects elevated valuation risk, but it’s still in the bull camp.

In Spark’s model, Nvidia isn’t perfect. But it is positioned. AI infrastructure is the game. Nvidia is still the best player on the field.

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