Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) might still wear the crown in the AI chip arena, but its reign hasn’t come without turbulence in 2025. Like many of the big Wall Street names, the stock has been losing altitude – down 19% year-to-date.
So, is now the moment to load up on this perennial winner? Not if you ask Seaport analyst Jay Goldberg.
In a rare contrarian move amid widespread bullishness, Goldberg has launched coverage on Nvidia with a Sell rating and a $100 price target — currently the lowest on Wall Street. That implies NVDA has 8% further to fall from here.
“Nvidia is one of the leading beneficiaries of the current AI spending boom, but its prospects are well understood and largely priced into the stock,” the analyst argues.
Goldberg does credit one bright spot: clients are upgrading to Nvidia’s next-gen Blackwell architecture, and the 2025 supply is already sold out – though that’s due in part to packaging constraints at TSMC.
But beyond that, Goldberg sees red flags stacking up. Demand may be sky-high, but the analyst argues the risks and saturation ahead make Nvidia far less of a sure bet than many bulls believe.
For one, the analyst thinks it’s quite difficult installing the products. “Our research indicates significant complexity required for deployments of Nvidia systems in comparison to traditional data centers – cooling, configuration and orchestration challenges throughout the supply chain,” explained Goldberg.
Additionally, the analyst says there is “strong momentum” among hyperscalers to develop in-house alternatives to Nvidia, as the company’s largest customers are actively pursuing the design of their own custom chips.
Add to that the geopolitical risks. With U.S.-China tech tensions still simmering, Nvidia’s international operations, and its cost structure, remain vulnerable to export restrictions and political shocks.
Looking at the bigger picture, Goldberg also thinks Nvidia is about to suffer from a shift on all things AI-related. The analyst talks of “mounting questions” about the practical utility of AI at the moment. This is a period of “growing pains” as customers work to identify viable use cases and find ways to generate meaningful returns on the big investments they’ve already made in AI.
Goldberg also thinks that in 2026, there will probably be a slowing of AI budgets and while he doesn’t think there is necessarily an AI bubble right now, it could take “many years before true utility becomes apparent.”
And even though Nvidia has been the chip stock to own, Goldberg thinks those days are over. “AI may do well this year, but NVDA is likely to underperform relative to peers,” the analyst summed up.
So, that’s a bear’s take, but there are no others currently on Wall Street sharing the same view. The stock boasts a Strong Buy consensus rating, based on an additional 35 Buys and 5 Holds. Going by the $167.09 average target, a year from now, shares will be changing hands for a 58% premium. (See NVDA stock forecast)
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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analyst. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.