EV maker Rivian (RIVN) is gearing up to report its third-quarter results on November 4. Ahead of the Q3 print, Top Mizuho Securities analyst Vijay Rakesh has downgraded the stock to Underperform from Neutral and cut his price target to $10 from $14 per share. The new price target implies a 23% downside from current levels. The 5-star analyst warned that slowing electric vehicle (EV) demand and the expiry of U.S. government incentives could weigh heavily on Rivian’s growth next year.
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It is worth noting that Rakesh ranks 67 out of more than 10,000 analysts tracked by TipRanks. He has a success rate of 64%, with an average return per rating of 24.8% over a one-year timeframe.
Top Analyst Cautions on 2026 Demand Slowdown
Rakesh said Rivian faces a tougher market ahead as overall EV growth in North America is expected to stay flat in 2026. He pointed out that Rivian’s plan to boost deliveries by about 69% year-over-year looks difficult to achieve in that environment.
The analyst also noted that the end of Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) credits will make EVs more expensive for buyers. Other automakers, including General Motors (GM), have already recorded significant write-downs on their EV businesses, signaling that demand across the sector is weakening.
Rakesh Lowers Delivery and Revenue Forecasts
As a result of the softer EV outlook, Rakesh now expects Rivian to deliver around 60,000 vehicles in 2026, down from his earlier estimate of 68,000 and below the Street’s forecast of roughly 72,000.
He also added that Rivian’s high vehicle prices — averaging over $70,000 — could limit short-term sales growth before the launch of its R2 model, which is planned for early 2026.
Overall, Rakesh believes that the company’s growth targets appear “too aggressive” given current market trends.
Is RIVN Stock a Buy or Sell?
Turning to Wall Street, analysts have a Hold consensus rating on RIVN stock based on seven Buys, 10 Holds, and five Sells assigned in the past three months, as indicated by the graphic below. Furthermore, the average RIVN price target of $13.65 per share implies 4.76% upside potential.
