Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ:RGTI) stock has been getting plenty of chatter ahead of the quantum computer maker’s Q3 earnings next Monday (October 10). Interest in quantum computing keeps climbing, as investors look for what could eventually become the next big shift in computing power.
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And few names have ridden that wave like Rigetti. The stock is up 156% so far in 2025 and an almost unbelievable 3,080% over the past 12 months, as excitement builds around the company’s long-term potential in the quantum race.
Ahead of the print, B. Riley’s Craig Ellis, an analyst who ranks among the top 1% on Wall Street, thinks Q3 consensus estimates of $2.2 million in revenue and a ($0.06) loss per share are “makeable.” However, there’s still risk to government contract revenue due to uncertainty around U.S. government spending reauthorization, with the $2.7 billion National Quantum Reauthorization Act and the $2.5 billion DOE Quantum Leadership Act still stalled in Congress.
“We believe quantum’s strategic nature means eventual passage of one or both, but acknowledge holding that view for multiple quarters,” the 5-star analyst went on to say.
Meanwhile, the UK’s £3.5 million ($4.7 million) Quantum Innovation Missions Pilot award amounts to “tangible international pipeline progress,” though the exact timing of revenue recognition remains uncertain due to ongoing quantum error-correction work with UK-based partner Riverlane. Ellis sees operating expenses at around $20–22 million, with R&D focused on error reduction and chiplet development as the company works toward the 100-qubit milestone. This implies cash burn of roughly $19–21 million, which, though significant, still offers “ample runway” given the $572 million cash balance at the end of Q2 – supported by Quanta’s $35 million investment, June’s $350 million ATM, and Quanta’s $250 million five-year systems R&D commitment.
Ellis also highlights $11.5 million in contracts secured in September – split between $5.7 million for Novera QPU systems and $5.8 million for AFRL quantum networking – as indications of “commercial diversification and scalability progress.”
All told, the analyst likes the progress taking place at Rigetti. But even strong progress has limits when a stock runs this far, this fast. Rigetti now carries a $12.7 billion market cap. In Ellis’s view, the valuation has sprinted far ahead of fundamentals, and it may be time for investors to get off this train after the remarkable rally.
“In moving to the sidelines on RGTI shares as we downgrade from Buy to Neutral, we will continue to monitor fundamental items, including error reduction progress, chiplet architecture-based system scale-up, and system development progress with partner Quanta Computer, among other matters,” Ellis summed up.
It should be noted that along with the downgrade, Ellis actually raised his price target from $35 to $42, which implies a 7% upside from current levels. (To watch Ellis’s track record, click here)
Overall, broader Street sentiment is mixed. RGTI holds a Moderate Buy consensus based on 5 Buy recommendations and 2 Holds issued over the past 3 months. At the same time, the Street’s $32 average price target implies shares could decline 18% over the next year. With earnings set for next week, the results may help clarify whether expectations need to be reset. (See RGTI stock forecast)
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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analyst. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.