Following recent data points including CarMax’s (KMX) Q3 results last week and no Q4 Carvana (CVNA) ABS deal, Wedbush analyst Seth Basham reduces estimates further below consensus for the latter. CarMax painted a bleak near-term industry picture, highlighting that many competitors were sharply cutting prices in order to reduce bloated high-cost inventories in a falling price environment. With used car price declines potentially accelerating, there is nowhere to hide, Basham argues. Carvana entered the quarter with 87 days of inventory, and the analyst’s web-scraped data indicates that figure has unfavorably increased as its sales have floundered further and inventory units for sale have only modestly declined. He now forecasts 85k retail unit sales in Q4, down from 94k previously and versus consensus’ 96k. This is a 25% year-over-year decline, which would fall well short of the industry’s high-single-digit decline and CarMax’s 21% decline, and mounting share losses could be driven by tightening credit, lower advertising and operational/brand challenges. Although bankruptcy is not likely imminent, weakening results and liquidity lead the analyst to reiterate an Underperform rating on Carvana’s shares with a price target of $1.
Published first on TheFly
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