Vistra downgraded to Hold at Jefferies following 160% run-up

As previously reported, Jefferies downgraded Vistra (VST) to Hold from Buy with a price target of $230, down from $241, following the 160% run-up in stock in the past year, which the firm attributes to the expectation of a Comanche Peak nuclear deal. With the rally to $200-plus “beyond what any bull could have predicted years ago,” the stock is now pricing in a 100% probability that Comanche is contracted at $100/MWh and 75% odds that PJM nuclear assets are contracted at $88/MWh, argues the analyst. While the firm still has a positive view of Power, it is “difficult to ignore” the growing political risks in Texas and PJM, the analyst added.