BofA lowered the firm’s price target on Ultragenyx to $76 from $83 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares after the company reported topline results for the Phase 3 GlucoGene trial evaluating DTX401 in GSD1a. The firm increased its view of the odds of success in GSD1a to 70%, but slightly lowers its estimate of peak penetration to 30%. The firm also pushes back launch expectations to 2026 given management guidance to regulatory filing in 2025 and models a $2M U.S. price, down from $3.5M previously, to be in line with current consensus expectations, leading it to now model peak risk adjusted sales of $796M in GSD1a.
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