Trex Company sees Q4 revenue $140M-$150M, consensus $199M

The company states: “Our year-to-date sales growth of 3% was led by railing sales, which are tracking to double-digit growth for the full year. We now expect, however, that several factors will cause our fourth quarter sales to be below our original expectations. First, we are seeing continuing weakness in the Repair and Remodel sector in what also is the seasonally slowest quarter of the year. In addition, we expect that our distribution partners will manage their end-of-year inventories to lower levels through the end of the year. Thus, we currently expect fourth quarter sales to range from $140 million to $150 million, bringing full-year 2025 sales guidance to $1.15 billion to $1.16 billion, approximately flat with our reported sales in 2024. We have also revised our full-year adjusted EBITDA margin guidance to range from 28.0% to 28.5%. Trex will continue to pursue strategies designed to capture an increasing share of the conversion from wood to composite decking. We plan to include our popular SunComfortable(TM) heat-mitigating technology in new decking colors to be introduced in 2026, expanding the availability of this popular feature, and driving further market penetration with additional launches. To fully support this accelerated level of activity, we expect that in future periods our annual SG&A spending will return to historical pre-COVID levels of approximately 18% of sales. Also, we expect the mix impact associated with another year of double-digit growth in railing and additional depreciation related to the expansion of our Arkansas facilities will reduce 2026 gross margin by approximately 250 basis points. Recent merger and acquisition activity in both the pro channel and the home centers, together with the expansion of national building product suppliers, has increased the importance of brand recognition and product differentiation to contractors and consumers. As the market leader with the largest and most trusted network of contractors, dealers, distributors, and home centers, and a comprehensive range of products, Trex is positioned to gain the greatest share of the industry’s long-term growth opportunities. Given our strong cash flow generation and our confidence in the Company’s future prospects, the Trex Board of Directors has authorized a $50 million share repurchase program.”