Tesla initiated with an Underperform at BNP Paribas Exane

BNP Paribas Exane analyst James Picariello initiated coverage of Tesla (TSLA) with an Underperform rating and $307 price target Tesla’s two AI-led ventures – the Robotaxi and the Optimus business – generate zero sales today, but inform about 75% of the firm’s $1.02T valuation, notes the analyst, who takes an “optimistic view toward both.” While BNP Paribas said its base case assumes achieves “quite a lot,” including an active 2030 Robotaxi fleet of about 525,000 and 17M cumulative Optimus deliveries by 2040, it contends that 2026 consensus estimates appear “far too high.”