KeyBanc analyst Brandon Nispel lowered the firm’s price target on SBA Communications to $227 from $276 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm notes results were below expectations, with consolidated organic growth in line but lower Domestic organic growth. Adjusted EBITDA and AFFO/share also missed. Going forward, while SBA remains an Overweight-rated name for KeyBanc given its inexpensive valuation relative to history, potential leasing upside as the cycle bottoms, and upside to AFFO as interest rates moderate, the firm acknowledges a lack of catalysts, including domestic leasing is likely to stay at current levels in 2025; interest rate headwinds will likely cause a refinancing headwind in 2025/2026 should rates stay elevated; and these factors lead to low to no AFFO/share growth for the intermediate term.
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