Raymond James says Roblox commentary intentionally vague, conservatism baked in

Raymond James notes Roblox’s (RBLX) Q3 report and Q4 guide were both solidly ahead of expectations, though initial commentary on 2026 growth and margins disappointed investors. The stock is trading down 10%-plus throughout the day. Following its callback with management, the firm suspects that there is a decent amount of conservatism is baked in, and it still believes that 20% year-over-year growth is a floor for outcomes. Further, Raymond’s conversations suggest that while infrastructure expense is increasing on a dollar basis given expanding capacity needs, that it is not the primary driver of the company’s expected margin decline in 2026. It sees the DevEx raise as more consequential. Combined, the investments should continue to bolster Roblox’s position as the go-to platform for independent developers, allowing the company to establish its moat before competitors can build the same network effects, the firm adds, keeping an Outperform rating on the shares.