Odds On: When do markets think ‘GTA VI’ arrives?

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BACKGROUND: Earlier this year, Rockstar Games announced the delay of “Grand Theft Auto VI”. Originally slated for fall of 2025, their flagship title got pushed back to May of 2026. The company posted: “Grand Theft Auto VI is now set to release on May 26, 2026. We are very sorry that this is later than you expected. The interest and excitement surrounding a new Grand Theft Auto has been truly humbling for our entire team. We want to thank you for your support and your patience as we work to finish the game. With every game we have released, the goal has always been to try and exceed your expectations, and Grand Theft Auto VI is no exception. We hope you understand that we need this extra time to deliver at the level of quality you expect and deserve. We look forward to sharing more information with you soon.” On that same day in May, Rockstar Games parent company Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) reiterated its expectations that the company will achieve sequential increases in, and record levels of, net bookings in fiscal 2026 and 2027. “We support fully Rockstar Games taking additional time to realize their creative vision for Grand Theft Auto VI, which promises to be a groundbreaking, blockbuster entertainment experience that exceeds audience expectations,” said Strauss Zelnick, chairman and CEO for Take-Two. “While we take the movement of our titles seriously and appreciate the vast and deep global anticipation for Grand Theft Auto VI, we remain steadfast in our commitment to excellence. As we continue to release our phenomenal pipeline, we expect to deliver a multi-year period of growth in our business and enhanced value for our shareholders.” Neither company has issued any news on the open-world shooter since those May announcements. The game’s previous iteration, “Grand Theft Auto V”, was originally expected in Spring of 2013 before delayed release in September of 2013. Morgan Stanley believes “Grand Theft Auto VI” could be one of the largest ever in terms of audience and sales. The firm expects that the entire game industry will see a temporary shift in engagement and consumer spending away from other titles and toward “Grand Theft Auto VI”

THE BET: Traders on Kalshi are pricing in a 70% chance that the game releases before June of 2026, according to the latest market data. The “Yes” contract was last trading at 70c, while the “No” contract stood at 34c, suggesting some confidence in the game releasing on time. For every dollar users bet, they would win 30c on “YES” and 66c on “NO,” excluding fees at current odds. Kalshi is also assigning a 75% probability that GTA VI releases before August of 2026, baking in room for more delays. The “Yes” contract was last trading at 75c, while the “No” contract stood at 28c. Those with even less confidence in the game’s timely arrival can get Kalshi odds for the game releasing before 2027 at 93%. Markets are assigning a 93% probability with the “Yes” contract trading at 93c and the “No” contract trading at 11c.

Meanwhile, Polymarket gives users less options, and it is more cut and dry on the outcome of on-time and late. Polymarket contracts suggest traders see a 61% chance of the game arriving as scheduled. The “Yes” contract was last trading at 63c, while the “No” contract was at 41c.