Odds On: How to bet on Fed chair replacement as new front-runners emerge

“Odds On” is The Fly’s new series diving into the most interesting bets on events trading platforms like Polymarket, Kalshi, and Robinhood. Subscribers can now add $EBET to their Fly portfolios for alerts on news about events trading.

BACKGROUND: National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett and former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh seem to be the front-runners to replace Jerome Powell as the next chair of the Federal Reserve. Prediction markets seem to agree, with both at the top of users’ tickets at this point in time. This follows President Donald Trumps’ interview on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” earlier this week, where he mentioned both Hassett and Warsh and said Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has taken himself out of contention.  

Speaking about Warsh, Trump said, “He’s very good.” “Sometimes they’re all very good, until you put them in there, and then they don’t do so good. But … I think he’s a very good guy. I’d say Kevin and Kevin, both Kevins are very good.”

Of note, Chair Powell’s term ends in May 2026. Trump has been highly critical of Powell for not cutting rates. Meanwhile, Fed Governor Adriana Kugler has announced that she is resigning, which the President has called “a pleasant surprise.”

“It has been an honor of a lifetime to serve on the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. I am especially honored to have served during a critical time in achieving our dual mandate of bringing down prices and keeping a strong and resilient labor market,” said Governor Kugler.

THE BET: The Kalshi Events Market pegged the chances of Trump nominating Kevin Hassett at 47% and Kevin Warsh at 29%. The platform currently allows any bettor to choose “YES” on Hassett for 45c or bet on “NO” for 58c to potentially win $1. For every dollar you bet, you would win 55c on “YES” and 42c on “NO,” excluding fees at current odds. Kalshi also currently allows choosing “YES” on Warsh for 29c or bet on “NO” for 72c to potentially win $1. For every dollar users bet, they would win 61c on “YES” and 28c on “NO,” excluding fees at current odds.

There are 10 other names users are allowed to bet but viewed as having less than 20% changes of securing a nomination, including Christopher Waller, Judy Shelton, David Malpass, Bill Pulte, Howard Lutnick, Arthur Laffer, Larry Kudlow, Jerome Powell – the current chair, Ron Paul, Scott Bessent and Donald Trump, himself.