Novartis’ NATALEE readout a ‘best case scenario,’ says BofA

BofA notes that Novartis announced that the NATALEE trial of Kisqali has met its primary endpoint at the second interim analysis and given that the trial was stopped early at interim analysis, the firm assumes that the OS HR is 1 or less, meaning it shows no harm, as this is a requirement for FDA filing. The firm says the initial share price reaction may be "more muted," pending full data, but BofA views this as a "best case scenario on a key catalyst for Novartis." BofA, which has a Buy rating and CHF 97 price target on Novartis shares, sees early adjuvant breast cancer as a $6B-8B sales opportunity.