National Fuel cuts FY24 adjusted EPS view to $4.90-$5.20 from $5.40-$5.90

Consensus $4.96. The company said, “National Fuel is revising its fiscal 2024 earnings guidance to reflect the results of the first quarter, along with updated forecast assumptions and projections. The Company is now projecting that earnings, excluding items impacting comparability, will be within the range of $4.90 to $5.20 per share, a decrease of $0.60 per share from the midpoint of the Company’s prior guidance range. The decrease from the Company’s prior earnings guidance primarily reflects the impact of lower natural gas price expectations, partially offset by the improved outlook for both production and lease operating and transportation expense (“LOE”) in the Exploration and Production segment. The Company is now assuming that NYMEX natural gas prices will average $2.40 per MMBtu for the remainder of fiscal 2024, a decrease of $0.85 per MMBtu from the $3.25 per MMBtu assumed in the previous guidance. For guidance purposes, the Company’s updated natural gas price projections approximate the current NYMEX forward curve and consider the impact of local sales point differentials and new physical firm sales, transportation, and financial hedge contracts. The Exploration and Production segment’s fiscal 2024 net production guidance is now expected to be in the range of 395 to 410 Bcf, an increase of 2.5 Bcf at the midpoint. This guidance range does not incorporate any price-related curtailments over the remainder of the fiscal year. Seneca currently has firm sales contracts in place for approximately 90% of its projected remaining fiscal 2024 production, limiting its exposure to in-basin markets. Approximately 72% of Seneca’s expected remaining production is either matched by a financial hedge, including a combination of swaps and no-cost collars, or was entered into at a fixed price. The Company’s consolidated capital expenditures are now expected to be in the range of $885 to $1,000 million, a 2% increase from the midpoint of previous guidance. This increase is due to the estimated impact of New York State’s recently enacted Roadway Excavation Quality Assurance Act (“REQAA”), which requires that contractors pay state published prevailing wages to their employees on projects that require a permit to operate in a public right of way. We anticipate these higher costs to be passed on to the Company, which are expected to be recoverable and are being addressed in the Company’s ongoing rate case proceeding in New York.”