Mosaic provides market outlook

“Grain and oilseed markets are expected to remain tight through 2023 and likely beyond. The disruption to Ukraine’s agricultural production caused by war, coupled with reduced fertilization and sub-optimal weather in major growing regions threaten global agricultural production. This suggests that global stocks-to-use ratios for grains and oilseeds will remain under pressure. Agriculture fundamentals are driving crop prices higher and leading to favorable grower economics. In North America, a strong spring application season depleted fertilizer inventories, which are now being replenished. In Brazil, an attractive fertilizer-to-soybean barter ratio suggests a recovery in fertilizer shipments in 2023. For both potash and phosphates, supply constraints remain. In potash, we expect 2023 shipments from Belarus will be down 5-6 million tonnes from pre-sanction export rates, while North American potash exports are limited by constraints at western ports. In phosphates, China’s exports are expected to see only a modest recovery from the lows in 2022 but remain well below shipments seen in 2021. In both phosphates and potash, the fundamental tightness in global markets is expected to persist through 2023 and likely beyond.”