Morgan Stanley sees ‘small impact’ on Acadia valuation from ACP-101 failure

After Acadia Pharmaceuticals (ACAD) announced that the Phase 3 COMPASS PWS trial of intranasal carbetocin, or ACP-101, for hyperphagia in Prader-Willi syndrome failed to meet its primary endpoint, Morgan Stanley analyst Sean Laaman notes that the firm had assigned “only” 15% odds of success to the trial, so removing ACP-101 from its model results in only a small impact on the firm’s valuation. Acadia’s pipeline includes eight disclosed and more undisclosed programs, notes the analyst, who sees no impact on the rest of the pipeline from this late-stage pipeline failure and is more focused on the Phase 2 data from ACP-204 in ADP in 2026. The firm keeps an Equal Weight rating and $24 price target on Acadia shares, which are down 12% to $20.75 in pre-market trading.