Morgan Stanley sees September quarter beat, below consensus guide from Apple

Morgan Stanley forecasts a 4% September quarter EPS beat and 2% revenue beat upcoming from Apple (AAPL), but notes that the firm’s December-end quarterly revenue and EPS forecasts are now 1% and 2% below consensus, respectively, given “mixed iPhone data points” that reflect a more conservative iPhone shipment assumption for calendar Q4. While the firm notes it hasn’t seen iPhone forecast cuts from builds and its own supply-chain checks, it adds “we did pick up data points that allude to potential build cuts to come.” While near-term dynamics are “unlikely to change bulls’ or bears’ views” on Apple or Apple Intelligence, the firm thinks “any stock underperformance will be short lived” and it keeps an Overweight rating and $273 price target on Apple shares with its long-term AI upgrade cycle thesis intact.