Morgan Stanley expects Novartis to outperform after Kisqali ‘positive surprise’

Morgan Stanley analyst Mark Purcell expects Novartis shares to outperform this morning following the announcement of the interim analysis of the NATALEE study of Kisqali in adjuvant HR+/HER2-breast cancer, which was stopped early by the independent data monitoring committee as the primary endpoint of invasive disease-free survival has been met. The firm, which calls this outcome a "positive surprise," forecasts Kisqali 2026 sales of $1.9B, which it notes is below the $2.0B consensus forecast. Morgan Stanley has an Underweight rating and unchanged price target of CHF 88 on Novartis shares.