Molina Healthcare cuts FY25 EPS view to about $14.00 from $19.00

Consensus $18.62. The company states: “Premium revenue guidance for the full year is now expected to be approximately $42.5 billion, an increase of approximately 10% from the full year 2024. The Company now expects its full year 2025 GAAP earnings to be approximately $11.90 per diluted share and its full year 2025 adjusted earnings to be approximately $14.00 per diluted share. The updated guidance is driven by higher medical cost trend in all segments and, disproportionately, by the unprecedented medical cost trend in Marketplace, which is expected to continue through the end of the year. The higher medical cost trend is partially offset by operating leverage, a lower effective favorable tax rate, and the benefit of share repurchases completed in the third quarter of 2025. As a result of the Company’s revised full year outlook, the implied fourth quarter 2025 adjusted earnings are expected to be approximately $0.35 per diluted share. Within that guidance, the Company expects Medicaid to contribute a gain of approximately $3.00 per diluted share, but is expected to be offset by a loss of approximately $2.65 per diluted share due to anticipated performance in Medicare and Marketplace.”